Bitcoin Is Built For The Economy Nobody Sees Coming | Mark Moss

Scott Melker (0:00)

What if the Bitcoin move everyone just watched was already being telegraphed by the people with the most money? Today, I'm talking with Mark Moss about why retail capitulated while institutions accumulated.

Mark Moss (0:10)

The whales were accumulating this whole time. They did not lose hope, they did not lose faith, they knew exactly what was going on, and they were backing up the truck. What the Treasury's intervention in the bond market really signaled, the signal is that we are going to intervene in the bond and the currency markets to keep them stable.

Scott Melker (0:26)

And why Bitcoin may be entering a completely different macro environment.

Mark Moss (0:30)

I think we're entering this economy that's capable of tolerating higher rates. It should have higher rates, but the interesting thing is the government can't tolerate the higher rates. And that's where Bitcoin fits in.

Scott Melker (0:40)

We also get into AI, higher rates, the next phase of the Bitcoin cycle, and why Mark believes the bottom may already be in. Was this the start of the next major Bitcoin move? Find out now. Let's go.

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I see we both showed up in our official Bitcoin podcasting uniforms.

Mark Moss (1:54)

Man, I can't waste a decision in the morning on what I'm going to wear.

Scott Melker (1:58)

My t-shirt is the hits.

It's my go-to as well. It's so funny.

Mark Moss (2:02)

I can't waste a decision on what I'm going to wear or what I'm going to eat. It's like, got to be the same thing every day.

Scott Melker (2:07)

We're so predictable. So let's start with the market. Obviously, we've seen I think massive regime change. Bitcoin had been ranging and trading down in the low to mid 60s forever. We had massive complacency. People were giving up. And once again, Bitcoin did what Bitcoin does. And we had what seemed like an overnight move up 20-ish percent and now have sort of I think lifted the ground floor up higher. So I would just love to start by unpacking what you think happened, why and what it means.

Mark Moss (2:38)

Yeah, I think that most retail got caught off guard by that move of Bitcoin. Like you said, it does what it does. All of a sudden, there's a big move, which, by the way, is one of the biggest moves we've seen in Bitcoin's history. But a lot of people get caught off guard by that. But I think when you sort of peel back and look at the fundamental drivers of that move, but more specifically, what the whales were doing, it becomes pretty apparent. So unfortunately, we don't get real-time, daily access into what the whales are doing, the institutional moves, the family offices, the funds, etc. We get quarterly moves reported to us. And so when we look at what the quarterly moves have shown us, we can see why this move happened. And so, I know you spent a good amount of your career doing technical analysis. If you look at the technical analysis, I mean, that 60,000 level was just viciously defended, right? And so now we can see the actual reports that show why. So for example, while retail was still capitulating, unfortunately, we saw this move more than any other move. We saw this massive move from weak retail hands into long-term institutional hands, which is terrible because Bitcoin is supposed to be the people's money.

But we can see that in the filing. So for example, we saw, I believe JP Morgan had increased their Bitcoin position by 25 percent.

We saw Jane Street, which had reduced their, Jane Street, which is one of the largest market makers on Wall Street, had reduced their Bitcoin position by 70 percent in Q1, but it now built that back up to almost a billion dollars. It was like $980 million of Bitcoin position. And so what are they doing, right? Well, they're the market maker. So they're sort of like gearing back up to provide liquidity for the market. We saw the legend Paul Tudor Jones increased his Bitcoin position 18.9 percent. We saw the GOAT, the greatest of all time, Stanley Druckenmiller, his own family office, started rotating out of several of his AI positions, specifically around semiconductors, et cetera, and move into AI Bitcoin positions. So I think across the board, we can start to see this one. We can see that the whales were accumulating this whole time. They did not lose hope. They did not lose faith. They knew exactly what was going on, and they were backing up the truck. That's proverbially backing up the truck. CryptoQuant put out a piece of research that said, whales, wallets holding more than 10,000 Bitcoin, had added almost $2.9 billion worth of Bitcoin in the previous 60 days, while wallets of 10 Bitcoin or less had basically sold almost 10,000 Bitcoin. So there's like weekends, unfortunately, retail, there's the wall street, the psychology of the wall street trader or whatever, right? So it's like capitulation, fear, disbelief, and they were selling, selling, selling, but the whales were backing up the truck this whole time. And so that kind of now tells us why that 60,000 level was so defended. And so then when we see this move happen, it doesn't really come as a big surprise when we see that.