Bitcoin Falls To $82K After ETFs Just Bought $2.4 BILLION

Scott Melker (0:06)

Bitcoin dropped to nearly $82,000 after a week that saw the largest Bitcoin ETF inflows since October 2025, around $2.4 billion. We have price dropping while institutional and retail buying is arguably increasing. A lot of this obviously ties to everything that's happening in the macro, which we will discuss today with Mike, Dave, and David Young. Let's go.

Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the show. Happy Macro Monday to all of you. We're going to bring on Mike, Dave, and David Young, today. Welcome, gentlemen. Lot going on. Mike, you're the first to unpack it. Let's go.

Mike (1:06)

Thank you. And good morning, Dave. Both Daves. The first Ira Jersey came on, his quote about this multi-decade highs and yields is what stops it. And he says he's not seen a lot of leverage long bets, seen mostly deleveraging potential for more flattening of the curve. His key level in the 10, you know, which right now at 522 is 532 It's a pretty significant level for him. He expects to see pretty significant nibbles near those levels. He says lots flowing into money markets, about 8 trillion. He fully expects a lot of that to go to things like 2U notes that yielding almost 5%.

Expecting more bear flattening of the curve. Nominal GDP growth is the main driver. The market is not pricing for an uptick in inflation. He fully expects the Fed to get inflation under control. Chris Kane, our equity strategist, pointed out, just as Ira pointed out too, the stock is holding up really well. It's what's really also pushing up yields. And current factor, Chris Kane just pointed out, Monempt is still fine, but he pointed out one key thing that's happened, that earnings are kicking in for three Q in the beginning of October. And he just gave Micron as an example. Micron's earning per share is up 10X from this time a year ago. It's pretty amazing. David Santana, who came in on foreign exchange, he just pointed out the elections in Brazil. And then Andrew Sascha, our economist, said the deployment rate is probably going to be close to 80,000. He's expecting, it's kind of there with the consensus, expects the rate to probably kick up to 4.2%.

October 28th, for that meeting, it's still priced for 70% of a hike. He thinks the data this week will probably push it back towards 50-50. PC is coming out. He's looking for 0.3, 10th of a percent, which is kind of consensus, except it might be reduced a little bit lower in the year over years at 3.7%.

I spoke about commodities, which are all about energy, but I pointed out the fact today that gold is down 3% and crude oil is up 2% and gold might be mattering more. And I brained IRA and the Treasury yields for the…

The energy market is breaking stuff. Energy markets, contrises, will break stuff. It hasn't broken the stock market yet, but it's certainly breaking the bond market. It's just a question of how far the surge goes before the purge, because part of this is… First of all, we're seeing the demand destruction faces everywhere. Massive supply coming out of the US., decrease in demand from China, and what usually happens, we get that high price cure. It's just a question of how high it will be. And then we also have the midterm elections coming up. This whole situation is based on the decisions of one human being, President Trump, who's getting quite desperate, and his party is pushing completely against him in the midterms. If he doesn't do something soon, there'll be something done after the midterms. I mean, if you want to get elected now, one of the best things to do is push back in the war, inflation, and even Mr. Trump. Unfortunately, that's just the way we cycle. So he's got to find something to do. Decent exports, I don't know. But then I point out in commodities, a key theme is what's really happened in metals. Is that 5%, almost 5%, and that 2, you know, is just too high. Fed tightening, the key thing is never fight the Fed. That's a key pressure on cryptos and Bitcoin and metals. And the one that's really at next on the list that might be on that pump-then-dump list so far, which includes Bitcoin, gold, silver, platinum, and iron ore, is copper. Still keeping my eye on copper, and I expect that's the one that's going to have the problem and get smacked a little bit. And just follow the trend. Back to you.

Scott Melker (4:38)

All right, there was a lot of things there we can start at. So listen, it was funny when I checked the crude prices this morning, it was 108 or something. Now it's 99 So obviously that's coming off the highs. Gold prices, Mikey pointed out, break below 4,200. Gold down over 3% today. You think that's kind of the big signal. A lot of that obviously tied to US 10-year treasuries here at 5.2 to 1%.