Bitcoin Faces Warsh's First FOMC Today - Should We Be Concerned?

**Scott Melker** (0:01)
Bitcoin faces Warsh's first FOMC today. Should we be concerned? I, for one, am shaking in my shoes, terrified that Bitcoin might exit its $500 range and go down a little bit for 12 minutes if Kevin Warsh says the wrong thing. But maybe my guest today is more concerned. I think we have probably more interesting things to talk about than the Fed. I've got Kyle Reedhead from Milk Road. Let's get into it right now.
Good morning, everybody, happy Wednesday, and welcome to my tranquil lakeside estate with a nice, casual breeze that's blowing the trees in opposite directions. It's not AI, it's my actual place. Kyle, what's up, man, how are you? I never know what the background's gonna be, it's a surprise to me when it pops up.

**Kyle Reedhead** (0:59)
Quite a surprise to me, it looks great, though, I wish I was there. But I'm great, man, it's good to be here.

**Scott Melker** (1:02)
Yeah, I wish you were here, man. Wish you were here, you know, in person. So yeah, first of all, I guess we can unpack the beginning here, the Fed, right? We've got Kevin Warsh's first FOMC. He's sort of made a lot of comments over the past few months about how he would likely handle these as far as, you know, not giving out as much information. Maybe he would get rid of the pressers entirely. I mean, have you been doing any deep dive into what we might see from Warsh today? I guess we can talk about what it will mean for Bitcoin price, but I think he does nothing and it won't mean much personally.

**Kyle Reedhead** (1:35)
So I was just about to say the exact same thing. I don't really think much is going to happen here. I know that we're pricing in rate hikes for this year.
There's no way, in my opinion, he's going to do it today. I just I don't see it. The economy looks good. Unemployment looks fine. It's nothing too crazy.
I don't see an inflation is the only thing that is a little bit high, but I think that's because of the price of oil, which appears to be coming down. I think it's at like $75 today. So we're seeing some easing on that side of things. So ultimately, I don't see the reason for him to hike. So I think he's going to just remain positive.

**Scott Melker** (2:14)
Yeah, I think that I kind of tend to agree. I mean, here, you know, I have markets. Markets turn their focus to the Fed, as well as return to pre-war levels. So I think that he has a lot of cover here to say that inflation was because of oil and now oil is coming down. So let's see what happens, right? That seems like the most obvious thing. And then eventually he'll probably just cut because he's got sock puppet, whatever they call them.

**Kyle Reedhead** (2:37)
I mean, it would be a nice shock to the market because again, the market's pricing in a hike. So if all of a sudden we got cuts and again, I don't think he'll do it today. But maybe in Q4 or something, if we do get some cuts, I think they'd be a good surprise to the market.

**Scott Melker** (2:51)
Yeah, I agree. I'm trying to find my good Kevin Warsh memes. I've got a bunch.
This one's kind of fire. We made this for one of our other shows. This is the Kevin Warsh as a sock puppet.

**Kyle Reedhead** (3:04)
Love that.

**Scott Melker** (3:06)
I think that it speaks to the fact that he's likely, maybe not today, but he's probably going to end up doing what he was put in the job to do.

**Kyle Reedhead** (3:15)
Do you think he's going to be Trump's puppet? Is that your take?

**Scott Melker** (3:19)
Yes.

**Kyle Reedhead** (3:20)
Easy as that.

**Scott Melker** (3:22)
I take that at 100%. Yeah, but I think that even if markets are pricing in hikes, when has the Fed dot plot or markets been right over the past four or five years? Remember, we were the recession that we were supposed to have and all the hikes and cuts we were supposed to have that never happened, right? So I don't think anybody knows anything, and I think that eventually, they just need easy money, especially if they want to win the election.

**Kyle Reedhead** (3:47)
I think economists are more like weathermen, basically.

**Scott Melker** (3:51)
Yeah, I absolutely agree with that. Maybe worse.

**Kyle Reedhead** (3:56)
Yeah.

**Scott Melker** (3:57)
Yeah. So listen, I think the more interesting conversation, obviously, Bitcoin is kind of, I think a lot of people viewing it as languishing here at 65,000. I think it's just totally fine. There just hasn't been a massive narrative to carry it right now, and that seems to be the sentiment with every guest that I bring on right now.