Bitcoin Faces A $75B SpaceX Drain Today – Largest IPO In History

**Scott Melker** (0:01)
Bitcoin faces a $75 billion SpaceX drain today. It is the largest IPO in history. This is the Super Bowl of financial markets. Jim Cramer says that it can soar to unsustainable heights. That's good, right? We're going to talk about that. Of course, the debate between Michael Saylor and Jack Moller's Bitcoin Prog and Saylor's head scratching comments right now. Let's get into it. Let's go. Come on.
Good morning everybody, happy SpaceX IPO Day to those who celebrate. I'm celebrating by riding a heavy Falcon rocket to the moon. You can see Earth is back there somewhere.
You peasants down there. Just know that for the entirety of this show, I'll be looking down on you.
Okay? Just know that. I'm in my moon base, though, where we're here for the SpaceX IPO, it's going to be exciting. I have no idea what's going to happen, because I have a small enough ego to realize that I cannot predict the future, but I do expect likely that we will see some extereme volatilita today. So obviously, I'll get into SpaceX in a minute. First I want to talk about one Michael Saylor. We're getting this little weird, awkward, I was sitting in the front row video that everybody's talking about. Let me just go ahead and show you what Michael said.

**SPEAKER_2** (1:51)
I refuse to do it because a troll on Twitter said, Hey, you said never sell your Bitcoin. Okay, fine. I'll destroy a 100 billion dollar company, so that I don't sell my Bitcoin. Well, the point is, by the way, I said to you, never sell your Bitcoin. I never said that the company wouldn't sell his Bitcoin, and anybody that's been listening to our earnings calls or reading our disclosures or has half a brain knows for the last five years, we've been very clear that of course we sell the Bitcoin if we have to.
Yeah.

**Scott Melker** (2:28)
I'm going to do this.
Hey.
He definitely said, sell the kidney, but don't sell your Bitcoin. He has never personally sold any Bitcoin. If you do read their disclosures and listen to their calls, because they are SEC regulated and are stacking Bitcoin and have preferred securities, they have always said technically that the company would be willing to sell Bitcoin because their products are backed by Bitcoin. But he was feeling a little heady, feeling a little spicy that day, and I'm not sure he should have said that. I mean, it is technically true. He did tell us to never sell our Bitcoin. I believe an individual should probably not sell their Bitcoin, but somebody it sounds like kind of got under his skin a little bit in that one. And it's important to remember that strategy will remain a net buyer of Bitcoin no matter what. They might sell a little bit. We've seen it twice in history and that they've bought more. But that one is definitely setting the world on fire. Right. This comment that he made there. And if you guys haven't seen the other video, I won't be showing it. But Jack Mollers is obviously the CEO of Strike and of 21, a competitive treasury company, had some spicy questions for Sailor at Bitcoin Prong. I think he stood up in the audience and was like, hey, Jack Mollers here.
Asked a question when they put the mic in a college kid's face and he debates somebody up on stage.
So first of all, people are taking it that these guys hate each other, but these guys love each other. I literally was at Michael Sailor's house, probably in 2021, and he had a birthday cake for Jack Mollers and we sang happy birthday. That happened. So he had a birthday party for him at his house. So these guys are definitely friendly. But it was a conversation about what would be dilutive to the strategy stock if what we just saw was not dilutive when they added to their cash balance and bought more Bitcoin by selling strategy stock. And of course, how do you calculate MNAV? I wrote a newsletter about it today, probably the best way to actually fill the space. Oh, I'm on the wrong screen again. This one. That's good. I'm so bad at this because I'm so used to doing it a different way on the other days.
So just read the newsletter, the Wolf Dead newsletter. But basically, the TLDR is it's really complicated to calculate MNAV. Do you consider convertible debt that's out of the money? Or do you not consider it? What metric should people be looking at? Should it just be Bitcoin yield? Or when you have a complex capital stack, is there more to it? But the bottom line is if you're going to invest in treasury companies right now, it's very, very hard to define the metric at which they are successful and you're doing better than just buying Bitcoin. Now you all know that I'm a sailor fan. I own some SDRC. I mean, it was 92 bucks. I was like, if this thing goes back to 100, Yahtzee, get that gap up to 100 plus that sweet 11.5% yield. But it's not like I'm putting all my savings account into SDRC. I buy Bitcoin more than I buy anything else and that is the preferred asset that I personally would like to buy. But it's just very complicated because you can't just divide the market cap by the amount of Bitcoin you hold and be like, yay, RMNAV, right? There's like four preferred products here, convertible notes, the actual micro strategy stock. Very, very hard, I think, to calculate these things. Now, I want to talk a little bit about the Bitcoin market. Oh, more importantly, I have a guy you might know. He's the president and CEO of Strategy. His name is Fong Li. You guys might know him. Very important talking to me at noon on The Daily Wolf. So, I'm going to just flat out ask him, you know? I was like, Fong, dude, do you just come on the show? We don't usually do guests. We got 15 minutes and I'm just going to hit you with all the questions that I'm seeing on social media and you can just answer them straight up. So, that's probably, I don't even know why I just covered it, when I could just get the correct answers. Now, I'm going to probably look dumb, because I probably said things are wrong. I'll probably say things that are right, but you should watch that at noon. So listen, I want to talk about where Bitcoin is at. So obviously, we're at kind of like peak negativity fund here once again. I feel like Bitcoin down 30% and gold down six. So the two worst performing major assets so far in 2026 Something we haven't seen before in any calendar year. That sounds bad. Then you have these kinds of things. Analysts reveal harsh reality for new Bitcoin buyers. So 95% of people who have bought Bitcoin recently are underwater. So they're making this as the case that we have to go down further and the market can't go up because all these are going to be sellers the minute that they get back in profit. And I asked you, how does any market go up out of a bear market? If that analysis is correct. These are the kind of things you see at the bottom. Everybody's out, there's despair. Like markets eventually go up. Guys, even if there's people who are not in profit and they have to sell when they get there. But these are the kind of narratives that we're seeing repeatedly over and over again. And listen, I mean, just to take a very... This is driving me nuts. I got to reframe this watch.