Bitcoin Down, Confidence Gone… Perfect Setup? #CryptoTownHall

**Scott Melker** (0:00)
Well, good morning, everyone.
Happy Wednesday, I guess. Yesterday reversed Monday-ish, and now we're kind of hovering here. And I thought Gary did a really good job of capturing the mood in terms of where the market is. I'm curious what everybody else is thinking. But my thought is, yeah, you know, despondency and despair without major price action, it's constructive over time, but it's not the kind of V bottoms and rocket ships that people in crypto want to see. So that's where we are. I mean, Gary, you've been taking a lot of crap these days for kind of calling it as it is?

**Gary** (0:40)
Dude, seems like people don't like reality.
You know, I would love to be able to say Bitcoin is going to go to $190 million, but I think before that happens, you actually need something called buyers. People that actually have fresh cash or credit or go into leverage and they start buying tens of thousands of Bitcoin at $61,000. Until that happens, we go lower. My boy Jason Williams, who's been in this space like three times longer than me, he thinks we go to $50,000 before we see $75,000. So I couldn't even get the guy to take a bet at $52,000, $55,000. I mean, there's so much bearishness in this market. And by bearishness, I mean, people are not writing checks, moving money to exchanges and buying Bitcoin. It's simply not.

**Scott Melker** (1:36)
It's true. I mean, it's true. It feels like, I did a post this morning where I basically said, it's literally the exact opposite of how it felt. I mean, people who were buying Bitcoin between 110 and 120 toward the end of the summer were giddy. It's like we're going higher. It always feels great. And right now, sticking your toe in the water and DCAing or whatever you're doing feels like shit.
I don't know about you, but I far prefer, and performance is far better, if you spend, when it feels great to buy, you dial it back and when it feels like shit, you dial it up. The problem is, it is one of the single hardest things for human beings to do. It's sort of like why when you learn to ski as an adult, it's so damn hard. It's because in skiing, if you start to fall, the absolute right thing to do is to push yourself down the mountain in the direction of where you're falling and you can get yourself back. If you sit back even a little bit because of panic or trying to slow yourself down, that's it. You wipe out and you have what my kids would lovingly call a yard sale all over the mountain. Trading is very similar, right? And so understanding that, I'm not bullish, but I understand that you need to... Capturing bottoms, bottoming is a process. I mean, it's so rare that you get V bottoms. And people in crypto are so conditioned because of the COVID V bottom, and a few of the others that we've seen, that they get wrecked. They go in and they go crazy leverage. So yeah, that's basically the way I'm looking at this. I mean, when 10.1 happened, the best estimates were six to eight months for it to wind, get its way through, and probably a year before the sentiment improves to where you're in anything really constructive, although who knows what the hell price is going to do? Well, it's eight months now. We hit a bottom pretty close to six months, so we've been bouncing around ever since.
This is the second test of the low recently, but yeah, you're right. It feels like crap. And what does that mean in terms of absolute price action? Well, it's a question of are there more coins to be sold here, or are the sellers exhausted too? Because you get these low volume periods, Gary. It's both, right?
I mean, I thought all I could say is hello.

**Gary** (4:13)
It is, but I think the problem is we have now sellers. I mean, let's just think about this realistically. A few people have been doing this a very, very long time. We have to get now through 63, 65, 67, 70, 73, 75, 78, 82, 81, 83, something like that. Then you got to punch through 89, 87, 88, 89, and hold it. And then you got to go 93, 98, 100 There are going to be so many sellers at 100 It's going to pop your eyeballs out.
We know that now, guys.
These people have a cost base of 1,000 bucks. Until that gets washed out, we have a problem. I just...

**Scott Melker** (4:58)