Bitcoin Bottom or Bull Trap? Fear Hits 8 #CryptoTownHall

**Scott Melker** (0:00)
Well, good morning, everyone. Looks like Armageddon didn't happen, at least not today. Doesn't mean it can't happen tomorrow or next Monday or whenever, but we heard some predictions of what would happen over the weekend that predictably didn't happen. And here we are. And markets are interesting this morning, I guess. Most markets are up a bit. Bitcoin obviously bounced off of its 200-week moving average again. And here we are. And I don't think that this is remotely surprising, but that's just me.
So curious how everyone else is looking at it. I mean, Gary, I don't know if you were predicting this to happen now, if you think this is actually necessary. And it is the classic bull trap, but we're still sliding back into the 50s to the 40s. But how are you looking at this?
And put it in context of the show in the Middle East. I don't know what other... I know it's real and there's human cost, but I don't even know what to make of what's going on anymore.

**Gary** (1:01)
I don't even care anymore. I think the whole world is just bored of this at this point.
Don't really think it matters. But on Bitcoin, awesome. We've had a little relief rally here. I personally don't think it holds, but would love it to. I think we have to test the low again, just to go check it out.

**Scott Melker** (1:31)
A third time? We did test it twice.

**Gary** (1:35)
Well, we're in the summer, dude. It's May. Excuse me. It's the middle of, it's 8th of June.
The extra powder in this market is going to drop. It's going to go to, I think it's going to go to a lot of these. Look, SpaceX is over-subscribed by 2X, 200%.
Look, I just don't see the big, I don't see anything that's going to create this big run. People are talking about $10 million Bitcoin. It's just a little out of my reality. But we'll see, man. We'll see.

**Scott Melker** (2:13)
I'll tell you my reality later.

**Gary** (2:15)
I would like it to go another $10,000 down because I'd like to buy a lot of it here, quite frankly.

**Scott Melker** (2:21)
I look at this in two ways. First, I think that the SpaceX IPO is going to be a watershed event. I think that most of the selling to buy it has already happened.
And now the real question is, what do the insiders do with the money? And what do people, and how does it trade after market? I would be ridiculously surprised if whatever the closing price is on, I guess it's, is it Friday?
Is it Friday is the day, or is it a week from now? It's Friday. Yeah, I would be really, really surprised if the closing price on Friday doesn't become a point of resistance over the following weeks. And it goes, and it softens, particularly as unlocks happen, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. That's kind of a thing. I mean, outside of Google's IPO, I can't remember the last big IPO that didn't break its IPO price within a month. And I'm sure there are some. I just don't know about them. I mean, David, you follow this stuff pretty closely. I mean, what do you think? Am I out to lunch?

**David** (3:31)
No, not at all. But I am interested in looking at some recent IPO activity, namely the spinoff from Honeywell last week, the quantum computing item.
Really didn't meet a very strong reception. And I put that down to the fact that people are just gearing up and saving their money for SpaceX, which, given the potential involved with Starlink, yeah, I think it's going to be a major stock, clearly. And yeah, I think it's going to be trading over its IPO price in a month.

**Scott Melker** (4:04)
Okay, well, we'll see. I mean, I don't know. I mean, look, I believe that SpaceX combined with XAI will be a massive story by, you know, 2028, because I think by then they'll have data centers either in space or about to be in space, where their compute power in sourcing electricity from pure solar energy and the links back down to Earth will make it the low cost producer for AI compute and transference, that's what I think.
I have absolutely no idea how long it takes to get there or what the economics are or any of that to know what will happen with the stock.
You know, effectively that narrative will take hold at some point. And after the economic equilibrium of all the insiders selling and people buying, you know, creates whatever that bottom is, the bottom of the above the IPO price could be below it, I don't know. At that point, I think that narrative will start to emerge. But I think we have a long time for that and trying to, but we'll see. I mean, it's obviously big.