Big Take: Taylor Swift Wedding Predictions Are the Hottest New Trade

SPEAKER_1 (0:02)

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio, News.

Sarah Holder (0:09)

Would you consider yourself a Swiftie?

Francesca Maglione (0:11)

I think it's a scale.

Sarah Holder (0:12)

Like oh so many group chats this week, I found myself talking with my coworkers about Taylor Swift.

Francesca Maglione (0:19)

I like her music, but I'm not keeping up with every single thing she does with her life.

Sarah Holder (0:24)

That's Bloomberg's personal finance reporter, Francesca Maglione.

Annie Massa (0:27)

I am a big fan.

Sarah Holder (0:29)

And that's Annie Massa, a Bloomberg wealth reporter.

Annie Massa (0:32)

I am probably not all the way down the rabbit hole on every single development and every single Easter egg and every single song, but was I singing August in honor of my friend's birthday at a karaoke bar last week? Yes.

Sarah Holder (0:48)

Taylor Swift and NFL player Travis Kelce announced their engagement on Tuesday. And I wanted to talk to Francesca and Annie because there's one corner of the universe that's been turning their engagement into a money making event. The people making predictions and financial bets on where their relationship will go next.

Francesca Maglione (1:07)

We had a bet on our team and people had to give their, what they thought was going to happen with them in 2025 And I had said that they were going to break up. So I don't think I was expecting that at all.

Sarah Holder (1:19)

Did you lose money on that bet?

Francesca Maglione (1:20)

No, no, no money wasn't lost, thankfully.

Sarah Holder (1:24)

The rise of legal online betting in the US over the last few years has ushered in all kinds of bets, like bets on current events and pop culture, made on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Francesca Maglione (1:38)

So far this year, both of these platforms have had more than a billion in trading volume, so they've become more significant as the years go by.

Sarah Holder (1:46)

Within hours of Taylor and Travis' announcement, gamblers on Kalshi had placed about $80,000 worth of bets on the couple's wedding timeline. And by Thursday, that number had doubled to around $160,000. By Thursday afternoon, the odds of Taylor and Travis getting married by the end of the year hovered at around 7%.

Annie Massa (2:08)

I was not placing any bets personally, but I was kind of bearish. So here we are, and very happy for them, obviously.

Sarah Holder (2:14)

Yeah, bullish now on Travis and Taylor.

Annie Massa (2:16)

100%.

Sarah Holder (2:23)

I'm Sarah Holder, and this is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. Today on the show, how prediction markets work, why they're exploding in popularity, and what this all means for the people and events they're betting on. Betting isn't new. Humans have been doing it for millennia. But online prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have recently surged in popularity in the US. If I've never used Polymarket before, or Kalshi, is this like sports betting or is it different? How does it actually work?

Annie Massa (2:59)

The easiest explanation would be in the context of a presidential election, who will win? Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?

Sarah Holder (3:06)

That's Bloomberg wealth reporter, Annie Massa.

Annie Massa (3:09)

And you can bet on who will win. But now you're able to get odds effectively on all sorts of other different things. So will this event happen in the future? Yes or no? Will Taylor Swift release an album by the end of the year? Yes or no?

Sarah Holder (3:26)

The odds of that went up significantly.

Annie Massa (3:28)

Yes, exactly. And you can watch in real time as these odds change based on who's placing bets for yes, no, or a range of other different outcomes, depending on the type of market it is.

Sarah Holder (3:39)

Polymarket was founded in 2020, and it's gotten major funding support from Peter Thiel and Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin. This year alone, it's nearly 230,000 monthly users have placed nearly $16 billion of bets on real world events. Here's Francesca Maglione, Bloomberg's personal finance reporter.

Francesca Maglione (3:59)

It kind of started around the presidential election, and it's kind of shifted just beyond politics and everything in pop culture. When it comes to Taylor Swift in general, I think people were betting on things as, is she going to have a baby this year? Like, when are they going to get engaged? Is the wedding going to happen this year? Like, anything you could think of, people are betting on. There's a market for that, for sure.

Sarah Holder (4:19)

And what happens when you win and what happens when you lose? Like, how much money is on the line here?