Back to the Future: Nuclear Power and Capacity Expansion

Marc Miller (0:13)

Welcome to the ScottMadden Energy Exchange, conversations with leaders shaping the future of the energy industry. I'm your host, Marc Miller, partner and energy practice leader at ScottMadden. In this podcast, we explore the most important issues facing utilities and energy companies, from infrastructure and regulation to operations and strategy. We focus not just on what's changing, but on what it takes to execute in a complex and evolving environment.

There was a time not very long ago when talking about significant growth in US nuclear generation felt more like a history lesson, talking about the past. Today, it increasingly feels like we're talking about the future.

Electric demand is growing again as data centers, AI, advanced manufacturing, and electrification are creating enormous new requirements for power. Utilities need generation that's reliable, available around the clock, and capable of supporting a rapidly growing system.

Companies with some of the largest electricity needs in the world are becoming directly involved in securing new generation. All of that has put nuclear power back in the conversation. But what's especially interesting is that this isn't just a conversation about building new reactors. Some of the most immediate opportunities involve getting more from the nuclear fleet that we already have through upgrades, life extensions, restarts, and potentially even completing plants that were never finished. At the same time, the industry is trying to move small modular reactors, advanced reactors, and even a new generation of large reactors from concepts and commitments into actual deployment. So appropriately enough, today's episode is called Back to the Future, Nuclear Power and Capacity Expansion. My guest is my colleague, Luke Martin, a partner at ScottMadden, and one of our experts in nuclear power. Luke has more than 20 years of experience working with utilities, power producers, and energy technology companies with a particular focus on generation strategy, nuclear energy, operational modernization, and emerging tech. He's also been involved in industry and national laboratory initiatives focused on expanding nuclear capacity. Luke, welcome to the ScottMadden Energy Exchange.

Luke Martin (2:39)

Thanks, Marc. It's great to be here and great to talk about nuclear.

Marc Miller (2:43)

Yeah, I love the topic.

Luke, let's start off big picture. For years, we've heard people talk about a potential nuclear, I don't even want to say the word, renaissance. There was plenty of enthusiasm, but not really a lot of new megawatts showing up on the grid. But something feels different this time around. Why is nuclear back in the conversation now? And is this really a nuclear resurgence, or are we getting ahead of ourselves?

Luke Martin (3:14)

Yeah, I do think this time is different for a couple of reasons, but I'd stop short of declaring it a renaissance until we see more actual projects delivered.

The demand in this case is real. As you mentioned before, utilities are planning for significant load growth from data center demand, manufacturing, and broader electrification, while still having to keep the system reliable and affordable. Nuclear is unique in that it brings dependable, around-the-clock output at scale. The current policy support and environment has really helped level the playing field, but the more basic driver that the system needs is a lot more firm baseload power. The shift I see is really from asking whether nuclear has a role to play, to asking how quickly can we add capacity, and who's prepared to execute.

Marc Miller (4:07)

That's a great point, Luke. And one of the things that strikes me is how much the demand side of the equation has changed. For much of the last couple decades, the industry was planning around flat or modest load growth. Now we're talking about what some utility executives are calling generational load growth, which it certainly is. And a lot of that demand, particularly data centers, isn't just large. It wants massive amounts of electricity, essentially all the time.

Does that change the value proposition for nuclear?

Luke Martin (4:43)

So yes, absolutely. A large data center or industrial campus can be hundreds, if not thousands of megawatts and may operate at near full load around the clock. So what that does is it puts a premium on energy that's available when it's needed. So think peaks in activity for your household when you return home from work, or in the case of a data center, when they're training AI models, not just capacity that looks good on paper. And operating nuclear plan is especially valuable in that setting because the output is dependable and reliable, and the site and grid connection are already in place. Nuclear will not be the answer everywhere though.

Cost, timing, location, transmission interconnection, all still really matter. But the value proposition now is clearly stronger than it was a few years ago when load growth was flat to declining.