Are Latino voters turning on Trump?

Justin Webb (0:00)

We are talking today about a voting bloc that could decide the outcome of this November's midterm elections. In 2024, Latino voters helped Donald Trump win back the presidency. Now he's back campaigning for those voters to stick with his party.

Donald Trump (0:15)

You're incredible people. And I've loved you right from the beginning. I loved you for many years before I ever decided to do this political thing.

And you've liked me from the beginning because the numbers are incredible and I appreciate it. So, with the help of many friends in this room, two years ago we won more votes from the Hispanic Americans than any Republican president in history. And we won more than almost anybody that's ever run for office. And it was a great, I mean, it was a great thing.

Justin Webb (0:44)

But do they still love him? Can the Republicans hold on to their Latino supporters? And what are the Democrats doing to get them back onside? Or is this voting group giving up on both parties?

Welcome to Americast.

SPEAKER_4 (1:01)

Americast from BBC News.

SPEAKER_5 (1:04)

Whatever you want to talk about, Abdul, keep my wife's name the hell out of your mouth because she's way out of your league.

SPEAKER_6 (1:09)

The tide is coming. And this time we intend to win it all.

SPEAKER_7 (1:16)

See, he doesn't want to do the job. He wants to build his ballroom and travel with Natalie on their apparently defenseless flying palace, gifted by the emir of Qatar.

Donald Trump (1:28)

When I'm not around, you're going to be broke. There's not going to be anybody to report on. Nobody gives a damn about anybody else.

Justin Webb (1:39)

Hello, it's Justin in the worldwide headquarters of Americast in London, England.

Anthony Zurcher (1:43)

And it's Anthony Zurcher in Washington, DC.

Justin Webb (1:45)

OK, we've got two fantastic guests coming up later. Mike Madrid is a Republican strategist. We've talked to him before. And Chuck Rocha, who's a Democratic strategist and is actually working for James Talarico, the Democratic Party candidate for the Senate for Texas. Now, both of them have their own podcast. Both of them have come together, in spite of being from different political parties, to monitor, to talk about the Latino vote. And both of them have incredible insights actually into that vote from their differing perspectives. But as I think you're going to see, actually, and you're going to hear, they actually really do come together when it comes to talking about this group of people. Although, Anthony, it's fair to say, isn't it?

Yes, they are a group of people. Yes, they are a very big vote. But they're also individuals. And indeed, within the Latino vote, there are different strands of thinking.

Anthony Zurcher (2:38)

Right. I think that's the first thing to remember, is that it's not homogenous, it's not one vote that blocks on the one block, the votes on the same issues across the board. They come from all over Latin America. And someone who is a child or grandchild of Mexican immigrants is going to vote very differently than someone from Cuba, or who fled the oppressive regime in Venezuela, or someone who came from elsewhere in South America. So they have different priorities and different issues, even though they're often treated the same way. The other thing to remember is that there are large enough blocks in places like Texas, as you say, that they could decide elections. And back in 2024, the high 40, 48% of Latino voters backed Donald Trump, which was a high watermark for a Republican president, even more than George W. Bush in 2004 And the belief among a lot of Republicans was that Latino voters shifting to their camp was going to solidify their majority.

That obviously is something that is being called into question now, but they do play a pivotal role in these midterm elections in places like Pennsylvania and Arizona, and especially just in Texas. Yeah.

Justin Webb (3:48)

And when you look at Texas, so you've got this incredible battle going on. James Talarico mentioned the Democratic candidate, and we've done a bit about him in the past, and we've said, haven't we, that he's an incredibly able candidate, and he seems to have captured the ability at least to be taken seriously and potentially as a winner in Texas, which would be a first in recent times. Part of it is his abilities. Part of it is fair to say is that his opponent, Ken Paxton, is frankly a pretty hopeless candidate because he is widely accused of corruption.

He's just not a guy who the Republican Party would naturally have put into that position if they wanted an easy ride. And we've said before they could have had an easy ride with John Cornyn, the senator who Donald Trump didn't like and decided to get rid of. So Donald Trump has in a sense called a lot of fire upon the Republican Party in Texas. But I think he sort of did it, didn't he? Because he thinks that Latinos in Texas are on his side because, as you've just been saying, they were on his side really big time in 2024 So he's been back in order to get the support of all Texas, but specifically those Latinos who voted for him last time. And he's been saying the kind of things that he thinks would appeal to Latinos and to all Texans. Really interesting that the thing that he has doubled down on for James Talarico is, of all things, potentially being vegan.