AI Live Players: the Geopolitics & Strategic Dynamics of AI, with Samo Burja of Bismarck Analysis

**Nathan Labenz** (0:00)
Hello, and welcome to The Cognitive Revolution, where we interview visionary researchers, entrepreneurs, and builders working on the frontier of artificial intelligence. Each week, we'll explore their revolutionary ideas, and together, we'll build a picture of how AI technology will transform work, life, and society in the coming years. I'm Nathan Labenz, joined by my co-host, Erik Torenberg. Hello, and welcome back to The Cognitive Revolution. My guest today is the one and only Samo Burja, political scientist and founder of Bismarck Analysis. Samo is the strategic mind behind the weekly podcast Live Players, also on the Turpentine Network, where he and Erik Torenberg unpack sometimes esoteric but always critically important issues, from the evolving role of universities in Western society, to the Chinese government's resource and energy strategy, to the global problem of declining birth rates, and lots more besides. I listen to every episode of Live Players, often on the day it's released, so it was a real treat to have Samo on the show to discuss the strategic dynamics of artificial intelligence through a geopolitical lens. We cover a lot of ground in this conversation. On AI's overall trajectory, Samo questions the transformer architecture's long-term dominance, suggesting that we may soon see qualitatively different AI paradigms emerge, and that nations should continue to emphasize fundamental science rather than putting all of their energy into engineering scale-ups.
When it comes to the advanced chip supply chain, Samo advocates for industrial policy, including regulatory overhaul to boost US competitiveness, possibly via the designation of special economic zones, and even including direct government purchase of domestically manufactured chips, if necessary. On US-China relations, Samo advocates for framing the US-China relationship as one of economic competition rather than geopolitical conflict. And he critiques the 2022 Biden chip export controls as potentially counterproductive, arguing that they may well accelerate China's domestic chip industry. Regarding open-source AI models, Samo identifies difficult trade-offs. On the one hand, concentrating too much power in the hands of a few tech giants or governments could lead us to an Orwellian surveillance state. But on the other, unrestricted AI proliferation could enable bad actors to destabilize societies. Ultimately, there is no simple answer, and Samo argues that finding the right balance will be crucial. On the militarization of AI, Samo worries, as I do, that defense tech startups can and probably will begin to raise money to build a sort of Skynet and that this could dramatically increase existential risks and thus should be approached with extreme caution. Finally, on AI safety, Samo emphasizes the need for ideological diversity in AI research and governance. He suggests that a monoculture of thought, whether from effective altruists, corporate interests, or any single perspective, could lead to blind spots in safety considerations. And thus, he recommends that diverse viewpoints be intentionally installed in key decision-making roles. As you'd expect, Samo brings both geopolitical expertise and technological sophistication to all of these topics. And I was very glad to hear someone who is known for clear-eyed, real-politic analysis argue that the US can and should attempt to work more constructively with China, as opposed to taking the ongoing process of mutual decoupling and escalation for granted. As always, if you're finding value in the show, we'd appreciate it if you'd take a moment to share it with friends or post a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. And we always value your feedback or your topic and guest suggestions either via our website cognitiverevolution.ai or by DMing me on your favorite social network. Now, I hope you enjoyed this highly strategic geopolitical perspective on AI development with Samo Burja of Bismarck Analysis. Samo Burja, founder of Bismarck Analysis, welcome to The Cognitive Revolution.

**Samo Burja** (3:53)
Great to be here.

**Nathan Labenz** (3:55)
So you are known for your strategic analysis and for your super crystal clear monologues. I'm an active listener to your show that you do with Erik Live Players and definitely recommend folks check that out for in-depth analysis of many of the nation state level live players. Obviously, one of the hottest topics in the world today and one that is gradually infusing all of geopolitics is AI. That's many dimensional topic, but I wanted to start off before we go deeper into different live players and what their interests and positions and strategies are likely to be. Just with a little bit of context on kind of your AI world view, I find that many conversations fork early on questions of just like, what do you actually expect to happen? Do you think that AI is going to get super powerful or not so much? And we'll leave any debate of that topic for another time, but I just wanted to at least give people a sense for kind of what your outlook is so that they can better contextualize the rest of your analysis.