AI Credit Outlook, Global Macro, MSTR Analysis | BMTV Oct. 16, 2026

Grace Remington (0:05)

Good morning and happy Friday. Welcome into BMTV. I'm Grace Remington with Sean Hagan. Well, we have bonds bouncing and flying cars. I know you watched the Tesla reveal last night. Was it everything you dreamed of?

Sean Hagan (0:16)

It was and more. Look, it's hard to not wake up and be an optimist today, Grace. Look, we're advancing at such a fast pace. Technology is working. It's beginning to compound it at just kind of exponential rates. It's hard to watch a demonstration like last night and not wake up an optimist. Also, just kind of think about, hey, where we're going.

I think Bitcoin is a huge part of that future and the world is increasingly online, increasingly intertwined with technological development, and I want the superior technological money.

Grace Remington (0:47)

It was a really cool demo last night. I thought I was going to go demolition derby on one of those stunts last night. That's what it looked like. But great optimism, great way to start our Friday. Here's who we got joining us on the show today. Jeff Park, partner at ParaFi Capital, Allard Pang, research and insights analyst at Bitcoin for Corporations, Richard Byworth, managing partner at BYZ Partners, and Brian Vieten, analyst at Siebert Financial. With that, let's get you started with today's headlines. MSCI has adopted new rules to exclude non-operating companies from its global equity indexes with Bitcoin Treasury companies subject to the same financial tests. The final list of removals will be announced November 11th, with changes taking effect at the close of November 30th. Strive has expanded its SATS Preferred Stock Offering to 7 million shares at $90 each for expected gross proceeds of $630 million. The deal is scheduled to close October 20th, with net proceeds intended for Bitcoin purchases and other corporate purposes.

Deutsche Bank is weeks away from launching Bitcoin Custody in Germany. Its corporate banking co-head told Reuters, the bank plans to expand into Asian financial centers next year and later add services to help clients move money into and out of major stablecoins.

The IMF warns that an AI investment bust could trigger a global stock market sell-off and economic slowdown if profits and productivity fall short of expectations. In one downside scenario, global investment could be 1.3% lower by 2028 than in its baseline forecast. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no signal on October or December interest rate decisions, saying he won't prejudge either meeting. He said AI investment is contributing to higher inflation now, but expects the technology to deliver huge economic benefits over time.

And Barclay is saying a Tesla-SpaceX merger could be announced before December with SpaceX, the likely buyer, and an all-stock deal. The company's latest reported holdings total 30,221 Bitcoin. That's over 18,000 at SpaceX and over 11,000 at Tesla.

And with that, let's go take a look at our live markets today. Bitcoin trading just under 82K, down about a quarter of a percentage point this morning. On Wall Street, the SPY and QQQ showing a mixed picture in trading just as your day gets started. SPY kind of flat on the day, QQQ trading at $723. That's down six-tenths of a percentage point today. The S&P and NASDAQ both on track for weekly losses with the AI sell-off with the NASDAQ at risk of snapping a four-week winning streak. Let's take a look at Treasuries as well. The 10-year hovering around 5.09 today after hitting a three-week low yesterday. The 30-year sitting at 5.45. That's up four basis points from yesterday. Taking a look at oil here. WTI is climbing a little bit higher. Up over 3% from where it was yesterday. Trading above $97 a barrel. And gold catching a little bit of a bid here. Actually hit a two-week high yesterday. Trading above $4,170 per ounce. That's up about half a percentage point. But Sean, what stands out to you?

Sean Hagan (4:23)

What stands out to me is the fact that bonds seem to have caught a bounce here. I think that's an interesting development there. A lot of panic hands in the environment. And the US bonds have caught a bid, while it seems like it's still a global issue at large. So I'll be interested to see if it continues to kind of move with the rest of the global cohort, if it starts to kind of separate itself and differentiate itself, especially compared to outliers on the other side of the spectrum like a France.

Also interested in the moves in the market. You know, it's good to see kind of that bottom half of what we're top heavy indices starting to outpace the upper half. I think it was time for some capital rotate. It'll be interesting to see how limited that trend might be, or if there's a stronger continuation.