After Three-Day Slide, Traders Await Key PPI Data

Keith Lansford (0:05)

Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead.

I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's Early Look at the Markets for Thursday, September 10th. After waiting most of the week, investors get their first taste of August inflation data, as part of a one-two punch today and tomorrow. The 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time Producer Price Index, or PPI, is something of an appetizer, as Friday's Consumer Price Index typically packs more calories in terms of market impact. Following PPI, Oracle and Adobe report after the close, investors also await a rate decision from the European Central Bank this morning with a hike widely expected. All this occurs with a backdrop of accelerating conflict in the Middle East. The US said it struck several Iranian oil tankers earlier this week, and Iran targeted US bases in Jordan. Brent Crude, the international benchmark, hit $100 per barrel on Wednesday for the first time since July. PPI and CPI are the final key numbers before next week's Federal Reserve meeting and any sign that inflation inched up from recent benign readings might strengthen arguments for a rate hike. PPI consensus is for monthly headline growth of 0.4 percent, but 0.2 percent for core PPI, excluding food and energy. They were flat and 0.2 percent respectively in July. Core annual PPI is seen at 4.6 percent, up from 4.2 percent in July, and headline PPI is expected at 5.3 percent, up from 4.7 percent. Last week's strong August jobs report eased one source of concern for the Fed, which likely wouldn't want to hike rates if the labor market struggled. Average monthly jobs growth of 71,000 over the last three months looked decent. Still, jobs data is typically volatile in summer months, something policymakers understand. Inflation data will continue to determine the Fed's decision to hike, said Kevin Gordon, head of Macro Research and Strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. CPI is probably the most important reading in terms of the Fed's next move. Both reports feed into the personal consumption expenditures or PCE price report due later this month that is the Fed's favored inflation indicator. CPI consensus is 0.4% for the headline monthly reading and 0.2% for core, according to briefing.com. Those compare with 0.1% and 0.2% respectively in July. As of late Wednesday, odds of a rate hike at the Fed's meeting next Wednesday stood at 60% according to the CME FedWatch tool. One hike wouldn't necessarily change the landscape much, nor would another by the end of the year, which futures trading pegs is possible. It's how the Fed ushers in these hikes that might ultimately matter. If we see the Fed adopt an elevator response or hiking rates in small increments, perhaps at every other meeting, stocks should be able to digest the relatively slow tightening process, Gordon said.

Wednesday started the larger liquidity buybacks recently announced by the Treasury. The impact wasn't quite what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent might have had in mind as the 10-year yield spiked to 4.85 percent, the highest since late 2023 after the announcement of $6 billion in buybacks. There may have been hopes for a higher amount and the program ends in November. However, the 10-year Treasury Note auction Wednesday saw excellent demand briefing.com reported, which slightly blunted the negative market impact of the underwhelming buyback. Yields at the auction were the highest since 2007, suggesting investors are relatively happy with the amount they're being paid to hold long-term debt. High oil is one factor keeping yields elevated. Progress towards ending the war faded this month, and US. WTI oil topped $96 by late Wednesday. Markets have been resilient in the face of rising oil prices, said Nathan Peterson, Director of Derivative Research and Strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. The story, however, may be getting more complicated. $95 oil is not the same as $95 oil back in April because of the SPR depletions around the globe, Peterson said. And since oil goes into everything, what about inflation getting imbedded into expectations? It's a tough spot for the Fed, especially if oil prices continue to climb, and I'm not sure markets are appreciating that. SPR is a reference to the strategic reserves maintained by many countries. US strategic reserves are the lowest since 1982

In corporate news, Adobe and Oracle report after the close, putting fresh focus on AI spending and software. Oracle shares have had a volatile year, falling sharply on concerns about return on investment for its AI spending. Last time the company reported, shares fell double digits despite better than expected results as Oracle announced another debt offering. Since then, shares have slowly risen despite pressure on free cash flow. One possible sign of AI beginning to pay off is growth in cloud computing. A 93% annual rise in the previous quarter suggests positive developments and the question is whether Oracle can repeat. Consensus is for earnings per share of $1.74 on revenue of $19.1 billion.