A Wisconsin Upset & Gary Vee’s Next Bet 8/14/26

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
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**Katie Kramer** (0:27)
Courage.

**SPEAKER_1** (0:28)
I learned it from my adoptive mom.

**SPEAKER_3** (0:30)
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**Gary Vaynerchuk** (0:37)
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**Katie Kramer** (0:38)
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**Michael Santoli** (0:43)
Bring in show music, please.

**Katie Kramer** (0:47)
Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod, a political summer of socialism hits a speed bump. Wisconsin's Democratic primary for governor has a surprising result.

**Frank Luntz** (0:59)
If people think that their candidate doesn't have a chance of winning, they don't vote.

**Katie Kramer** (1:04)
Pollster and strategist Frank Luntz has a warning about letting polls get ahead of voters.

**Frank Luntz** (1:08)
These prediction markets are now turning politics into a game. We already have enough trouble with our democracy as it stands. God help us.

**Katie Kramer** (1:18)
The business of sports, marketing whiz and alternative sports investor Gary Vaynerchuk has won Whiffle Ball and Big Dreams.

**Gary Vaynerchuk** (1:25)
When I buy the jets, and I'm a Jersey voice, this is challenging for me, but I do dream about moving them to Queens. The Jets need their own identity and that I will take care of.

**Katie Kramer** (1:35)
Plus NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman on the future of American space exploration.

**Jared Isaacman** (1:40)
There is absolutely a space race underway right now. Every minute, every hour counts and we are moving.

**Katie Kramer** (1:48)
It is Friday, August 14th, 2026 Squawk Pod begins right now.
First up today on the podcast, the polls. Don't trust the polls? This week's Democratic primary in Wisconsin showed the limits of political prognostications when candidate, Francesca Hong, a Democratic Socialist who represents Madison in the state legislature was favored to win. By one metric, she was more than 20 points out of her nearest competitor.

**SPEAKER_3** (2:17)
We have built something that will change politics forever.

**Katie Kramer** (2:25)
She lost, narrowly, to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, a more establishment candidate. He had actually dropped out at one point because of these very polls showing him so far behind. And he re-entered the race in its final weeks with the support of Wisconsin's sitting and popular Democratic governor.

**SPEAKER_3** (2:43)
You know, I always say that every day is a good day.

**Leslie Picker** (2:45)
In Wisconsin, it is a very good day.

**Katie Kramer** (2:48)
Okay, let's get into it.

**Leslie Picker** (2:50)
Good Friday morning and welcome to Squawk Box here on CNBC, live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. I'm Leslie Picker, along with Brian Sullivan, Mike Santoli, third day in a row. Joe, Becky and Andrew are off today. Just 81 days to go until the midterm elections, joining us to break down the big primary results from this week and the key issues driving voters. Frank Luntz, FIL Inc. Polster and political strategist. Frank, good to see you. So we saw some pretty big polling misses in the Midwest this week. In the age of AI, we're 10 years after the 2016 election, which perhaps had one of the most highest profile polling misses in history.
How is polling still so off?

**Frank Luntz** (3:31)
It shouldn't be used the way that it's being used right now. I've been a guest here now for more than a decade and I've seen the advances in the technology. But you can't avoid the fact that in these primary races, you get turnouts of 15 or 20%.
Most people are not participating, so you should not be making these projections. News networks, newspapers, media outlets want to participate, want to be able to tell their readers, their viewers who's gonna win. But it's not accurate, it's not appropriate, and they have to stop doing it.

**Brian Sullivan** (4:09)
Is it dangerous?

**Frank Luntz** (4:11)
It's wrong.
It's simply wrong. We have a responsibility to be factual and to acknowledge where we are weak, we don't have the capability. There's no humility in polling it.

**Brian Sullivan** (4:22)
Let me flip it, let me flip it. Because I think what happened in Wisconsin, a state that I know well, okay, is you have to really think David Crowley, won the Democratic nomination, effectively dropped out. He was so low in the polling that he effectively said, I'm out. I'm done. Whenever he came back in, he ended up winning. But he was 96% on prediction markets, soaring in polling.