A Former CIA Official on One Year of Russia's War in Ukraine

Tracy Alloway (0:10)

Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway.

Joe Weisenthal (0:14)

And I'm Joe Weisenthal.

Tracy Alloway (0:16)

Joe, can you believe it has been one year since Russia invaded Ukraine?

Joe Weisenthal (0:21)

Yeah, it has been pretty extraordinary, remarkable year, just like in so many different respects, sort of the changing narratives over time with the war, the persistence of the war.

I think some people might have expected to be and much sooner, changing expectations of where it would go. The narrative around the effect on commodities and economics changed a lot over the last time. And I still feel like after this time, I still tons of ambiguity about where it's going and what the effects are going to be.

Tracy Alloway (0:53)

Well, absolutely. And I remember this time in 2022 when Russia first invaded Ukraine, some of the headlines that were flying around were this is the beginning of World War III, is this the start of some sort of nuclear apocalypse, given we were talking about the involvement of Russia and potentially NATO as well.

And then you mentioned the economic narrative. And that has changed quite remarkably in terms of the European energy story. There were lots of concerns about we're gonna have massive gas shortages. Europe isn't going to be able to handle this. But actually, fast forward 12 months, it hasn't been as bad as a lot of people seem to have expected.

Joe Weisenthal (1:34)

You are absolutely right. This winter so far has not been the disaster for the European economy that many have expected. And interestingly, my impression is that the Russian economy is not the basket case that many would have expected either, given both the cost of prosecuting the war in terms of raw materials, human lives and so forth. And then of course, the sanctions, which both limit a sort of a revenue generation opportunities, but also the opportunity for technical imports.

And my impression, again, only a sort of very modest insight is that Russia has over time figured out ways around or how to live with these various constraints.

Tracy Alloway (2:19)

Well, there is a vibrant debate on the extent of damages that sanctions have actually inflicted on the Russian economy, of course. And also there's a lack of information at the moment.

There are different sides in this conflict and each one has their own story to tell. So on that note, in order to stop and think and discuss what exactly we've learned over the past year or so about this ongoing conflict, I'm very pleased to say we actually have the perfect Odd Lots guest, really the perfect, perfect guest. This is someone that I met at the Explorers Club in New York. He is a retired senior executive at the CIA. He also served with the FBI in the Defense Department. He started out as a cryptologist in the Navy, studying Russian and deploying at sea. He has a PhD in Russian history at Columbia and in Russian economic history, I should say. He specialized in the history of the Russian stock market. He is now a consultant teaching at undergraduate and graduate levels. But really, I mean, I'm trying to summarize the career, but really the perfect Odd Lots guest. So we're going to be speaking with Robert Papp.

Robert, thank you so much for coming on Odd Lots.

Robert Papp (3:34)

Well, Tracy and Joe, thanks for having me and thank you for that wonderful introduction. I consider myself a bit of an odd lot, so I feel like I'm in a good place.

Tracy Alloway (3:42)

You're in the right place.

Robert Papp (3:44)

I would also note that the last time we spoke, we were surrounded by life-sized polar bears and narwhal tusks and Emerson's sled. So this is maybe a little bit different, but I think we'll work it out fine.

Tracy Alloway (3:55)

Yeah, well, we'll ask Odd Lots listeners to just imagine that you are surrounded by stuffed animals and that, you know, I think we were speaking during a thunderstorm in New York and it was quite atmospheric. Okay, with that caveat, Robert, why don't you start with just, where are we in this conflict? You know, it's 12 months on from when Russia invaded Ukraine. A lot of people were not expecting it to make that move. Where are we in this conflict?

Robert Papp (4:24)

I think this war, and we'll call it a war, it started out for the Russians as the Speciale Militaire Operatia, the Special Military Operation.

We still don't like to call it a war, although every once in a while a minister, like the German foreign minister, will actually come out and say that it is. But it is a war. It is one of the worst things that's happened to Europe, I think, since 1945 I think we've gone well past the Balkans conflict at this point.