61: Here's What's Going to Happen in 2017

Joe Weisenthal (0:08)

Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast, the first for 2017 I'm Joe Weisenthal.

Tracy Alloway (0:16)

And I'm Tracy Alloway.

Joe Weisenthal (0:18)

So Tracy, I'm really excited about our episode today because, of course, in the last episode, we did the look back for 2016, where we had some of our colleagues tell us their favorite stories of the year. But it's always fun and challenging to make predictions, and to look forward. The future is pretty difficult to figure out. 2016 was, of course, a very tough year to have called correctly in many ways.

And I think it's a good mental exercise to try. You know, it's always sort of foolish, but I'm a strong believer that people should make an attempt to say what the future holds.

Tracy Alloway (0:59)

Right. So this is the tough episode, right? This is where people have to exercise their mental muscles. They have to think rationally and all for the purposes of being exposed to ridicule and shame when we're inevitably wrong 12 months from now.

Joe Weisenthal (1:17)

Yeah, exactly. And, you know, there's a lot of journalists are sort of anti-predictions. They think it's a foolish thing.

They think that it's always going to be wrong. But I just I think that's missing the point. I think it's a it's a good mental exercise.

And it's sort of what you predict is an insight into how you've digested what you've seen so far. And it's just fun to say things that could be proven right or wrong.

Tracy Alloway (1:46)

Okay, well, in the spirit of fun, let's go to our panelists.

Joe Weisenthal (2:00)

With us for the second episode in a row, we heard them tell their favorite stories of 2016 Now we're forcing them to go out and tell us, look at their crystal balls, what exactly is going to happen in 2017 Joining us this week, we have Ed Hammond, who covers deals for Bloomberg News.

Welcome, Ed. Thank you for coming back. Mike Regan, who covers markets for Bloomberg News. He has launched a new markets live blog venture for terminal users.

Mike Regan (2:34)

Happy New Year.

Joe Weisenthal (2:35)

Thank you.

Max Abelson, our Wall Street expert, a Wall Street whisperer as I think I described him. Thank you for coming back. I can't wait to hear your call for the year.

Max Abelson (2:45)

Thanks, Joe.

Joe Weisenthal (2:47)

Megan Murphy, who covered politics for Bloomberg all year and now has taken on a new mission as editor of Businessweek. Thank you for coming on. Can't wait to get your prediction.

Megan Murphy (2:57)

Excited about it.

Joe Weisenthal (2:58)

Can't see if 2017 will be as crazy as it was for politics or whatever as 2016 was.

And Dan Moss, who has a great track record of predictions. Thanks for coming back again.

Dan Moss (3:10)

Great to be here.

Joe Weisenthal (3:11)

And Ed, why don't you tell us about your prediction for 2017?

Ed Hammond (3:19)

Well, I think-

Joe Weisenthal (3:20)

Crystal ball. What's going to be this year's spray-a-thon?

Ed Hammond (3:22)

Yeah, well, I think last year, I just went with the kind of stock M&A bank nonsense of, you know, we're going to see more deals in 2016 And we didn't see more deals in 2016 We did see lots of 2015 deals get blown up, which was quite interesting. I think almost 600 billion of deals that were struck in 2015 were sort of torpedoed in 2016

What's my prediction for this year? I think Nigel Farage, the sort of populist, slightly right-wing political figure in the UK, is going to end up in a...

Well, I mean, slightly, I suppose, by global standards, by UK standards, I would say, extremely. I think he's going to end up in a celebrity-based reality TV competition.

Megan Murphy (4:06)

Get me out of the jungle?

Ed Hammond (4:08)

I was actually thinking celebrity apprentice, because it would fit well with his sort of Trump-loving persona.

So that's my prediction. I think he is going to finally bow out from politics for a career in reality television.

Tracy Alloway (4:20)

That's a good one.

Dan Moss (4:21)

Did you vote in the referendum?

Ed Hammond (4:23)

Yes, I did. I went home to vote in the referendum. That's how seriously I took it.

Megan Murphy (4:26)

I did as well.

Ed Hammond (4:27)

It was quite depressing. Being in London the day after was like the world had ended, because obviously London was desperately against this. And not only that, they had had their recently departed mayor be the sort of flag bearer for the Brexiteers. And that was, I think, very, very depressing, obviously, for all concerned.