6% Yields By Year-End, 9% Mortgages—Stocks Get ‘Rug Pulled’ | Todd Horowitz

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

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Todd Horwitz (0:30)

I could see a 9% mortgage. So I'm looking for oil to be below 70 before the year is out. And I think we have a real good shot to get to 6% because there's a of demand for money and you're pushing it out. And you've got all these deals out there, which is going to raise the cost of money and the cost of interest rates. I've been buying silver at 60

I've been buying a little bit of Bitcoin. I think those are great places to go and park your money.

David Lin (0:59)

It's Tuesday, October 6th and stocks are up. The S&P 500 has hit a new all time high. Treasury yields are slightly down to 10 year and 30 year. Still at multi-decade highs, the highest since 2002 are down a little bit on the back of lower oil prices. Now oil has been falling because reports have come in that traffic to the Strait of Hormuz has somewhat normalized. It's returning to almost pre-war levels of total volume shift through the Strait. We're going to follow up and find out why and whether or not oil is going to continue its downward descent. Our next guest, Todd Horowitz, founder of bubbletrading.com, has been short oil and he's going to reveal to us what's next for oil, stocks and the bond market. Right now on Kalshi, there is a trade for where the 10 year yield is going to rest or end up at the end of the year. And I'll reveal to you right now, Todd believes there's going to be a chance that it's going to go above 6%, 6% or above. Now, traders are predicting a 92% chance that it will stay above 4.75, an 88% chance it will stay above 5% and only a 16% chance that it will go to 6 or above. Bubba's in the 6% camp. He's going to reveal to us why.

So, if you believe that there's a chance it will go to above 6%, well, a $50 trade could yield a payoff of $256 if you're right and the tenure goes to 6% or above by the end of the year. This video is brought to you by and sponsored by Kalshi, the largest prediction market in the US. And unlike a sports book, you're trading peer-to-peer on real world events from economic data to political outcomes and the price moves based on public opinion, not a house. Go to the link in the description down below, scan the QR code here to get started and use my code Lin. New users who use my code can get $25 NAP credits when you sign up and trade $25.

Kalshi is CFTC approved and available in all 50 states, including California and Texas. Welcome back Todd. Good to see you.

Todd Horwitz (3:03)

Always great to be with you David. You always got your stuff ready to go baby.

David Lin (3:07)

You've got your stuff ready to go as well. Thank you for being here. Now you have been short oil that turned out to be a good call at about $100.

So right now, like I mentioned, oil has been back down. So as we speak, diesel prices, distillate products, which consumers care about, have also fallen. So it looks like things are cooling off. And this comes after news have come out that there's more traffic coming out of the straight or for moves now than a few months ago. In fact, it's almost back at pre-war levels, according to some data reports. What is happening with the oil market? And are you still short?

Todd Horwitz (3:43)

I am still short and will continue to short oil. I think what you have to look at here, David, is a whole lot of things to unpack here. Number one, there's a glut of oil around. It's just not being refined. So they've held the prices higher. And this showed up in the profit reports for Exxon and Shell and all the others.

But what I think we're really looking at here now is we're a month away from the election.

And if the Republicans want to retain and add on, then they're going to have to get oil prices lower. They're going to have to do something about what's going on in Iran. They're going to have to bring these fuel costs down because the other big effect is obviously to inflation. Since 80% of our economy is based on fossil fuels from driving to trucking, to plastics and to farming, they've got to get these prices down to reasonable if they want to take care of inflation. And we've already had one rate hike. And I think there's a chance that if they don't do something here, there's going to be a couple of more. So that would put a lot of pressure on oil and a lot of pressure on the things that are going on. So I'm looking for oil to be below 70 before the year is out. Now, in the next couple of weeks, we could go anywhere. I mean, if we get some news out of Iran, we get a war, you know, a little flare up, oil will go back up into the 90s. But certainly I have working orders to sell more oil at 95 if it does top again. And I think this week, I think we'll probably see 85 before the week is over.