55: Here Are The Signs That A Civilization Is About To Collapse

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

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Tracy Alloway (0:26)

Thank Welcome to another edition of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway, Executive Editor of Bloomberg Markets.

Joe Weisenthal (0:32)

And I'm Joe Weisenthal, Managing Editor at Bloomberg Markets.

Tracy Alloway (0:36)

So Joe, how do you feel about the future of civilization at the moment?

Joe Weisenthal (0:42)

Tracy, it just all looks so bleak. Everything is so depressing. It seems like all of the things that we took for granted in terms of political norms and systems that we just assumed were permanent all seem to be going down the drain. It just seems to be all over, doesn't it?

Tracy Alloway (1:01)

That's one way of putting it.

Joe Weisenthal (1:03)

Was that a little more grim? Was that a little more grim than I should have gone? It was.

Tracy Alloway (1:06)

It was, actually. You know, I'm always trying to cheer you up. So I thought today we could talk to an expert on the collapse of civilizations.

Joe Weisenthal (1:17)

That sounds wonderful. That sounds like the perfect pick-me-up topic.

Tracy Alloway (1:21)

In all seriousness, I think you're going to like this particular guest because I know that you have an interest in Guatemala in particular. I think your mother lives out there now.

Joe Weisenthal (1:30)

She does. That's right.

Tracy Alloway (1:32)

Yeah.

Joe Weisenthal (1:32)

That's right. My mom is sort of retired to Guatemala to be a painter and live at the side of a lake.

Tracy Alloway (1:39)

And I spent a month out there, actually, right before I joined your team. So I got to see some of the old Mayan monuments, things like that. And the Mayan civilization is, of course, famous for its collapse, one of many ancient civilizations that have collapsed over the millennia, I suppose.

And to talk about that today and to connect it to what's potentially happening in the rest of the world right now, we have a guy who has at various times been dubbed the real Indiana Jones.

Joe Weisenthal (2:10)

Oh, my God.

Tracy Alloway (2:11)

Yeah. And actually, the person who recommended him to us was a previous guest on this show. It's John Shane, also known as Merle Hazard.

And he described our guest as a man who spends much of his time in a tent in various tropics with bottles of Scotch and philosophy books. But I should give him a proper intro. It is Arthur Demarest. He is an anthropologist. He's the author of something like 20 books about various societies. And he is also a professor at Vanderbilt University.

So, I think it's going to be really, really interesting.

Joe Weisenthal (2:48)

Well, I think living in tents and drinking a Scotch and reading philosophy books may be in all of our cards at some point in the future.

So, I'm not really that bleak, but I can't wait. All right, let's get it started.

Tracy Alloway (3:10)

Arthur, thank you so much for joining us today.

Arthur Demarest (3:12)

Thank you, thank you. I have some comments on your comments, if you'd like.

Joe Weisenthal (3:17)

Yeah, just jump right in, we don't even have to ask you a question.

Arthur Demarest (3:20)

Well, you know, living in the jungle, it's like 98 degrees all the time, and it's mud and full of snakes and scorpions and stuff, and mosquitoes, but living in a tent in the jungle, once you get used to that, you kind of need some scotch in the evening, but I mean, you can't binge drink it, because you got to make it last.

Joe Weisenthal (3:41)

Yeah, I was just going to say, you have to bring it in yourself, right? There's probably not an easy way to do that.

Arthur Demarest (3:46)

No, it's boat and four-wheel drive vehicle, and you know, you can't get there except by riverboat, ultimately.

And I do have the best philosophy library in the entire Patent Rainforest. I'm reasonably sure of that. I haven't actually checked, but...

Joe Weisenthal (4:02)

I already like this episode, I just want to say.

Arthur Demarest (4:05)

I love it. I love it there. I really love it there.

Tracy Alloway (4:07)

Let's talk about civilization collapsing, happier topics. What makes a civilization collapse?

Arthur Demarest (4:15)

Almost all civilizations collapse, especially complex ones. And there are many different reasons, but my... After studying, you know, I teach about 18 or 19 collapses, and I'm working now with Angkor collapse. I've also been working with business people, like Bart Victor at the Owen School of Business, about it. And you see patterns, but the broadest pattern is that often, maybe usually, the strengths of a civilization, its basic characteristics over time are the same things that bring it down.