20VC: The AI Bubble Will Burst: Half the Neoclouds Will Die | China: Should We Ban Chip Exports & Be Fearful of Chinese Open-Source | Mag7: Who Dies and Who Thrives: Why Meta is Meh and Microsoft is Mega

**Jerry Murdock** (0:00)
If there is a dislocation, no one is better prepared to survive it than hyperscalers. Let's take NeoClouds. NeoClouds right now, there's a whole bunch of them. I think at least half of them go away within 36 months. Fireworks is making a lot more money than Base 10
The more you customize the model, the more the token changes its value.

**Harry Stebbings** (0:21)
This is 20VC with me, Harry Stebbings. Now, everyone is calling today peak froth. Prices are out of control. There's too much money. We don't know what's gonna happen with this AI bubble. Well, you know what's really valuable in this time? Wisdom. Jerry Murdock, joining me in the Hot Seas Day, he's the founder of Insight. They manage over $90 billion.
Jerry has seen pretty much every technology cycle of the last 25 years. He's invested in some of the biggest companies across those 25 years. And today, we debunk whether we are in a bubble or not, whether China will beat the frontier models, whether we are about to have the greatest cybersecurity threats of our lifetime. This and so much more in what really is an incredible, wise operator truth teller saying it like no one else is willing to today. This was incredible with Jerry. But before we dive into the show today, every great software company eventually runs into money. Uber had to move it. Shopify had to hold it. Airbnb had to settle it. Money movement stopped being a fintech problem. It became a software problem. And increasingly, god, it's an AI problem too.
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**Jerry Murdock** (4:33)
You have now arrived at your destination.

**Harry Stebbings** (4:36)
Do you know what? I think I genuinely have the best job in the world because I get to sit down with people like you and I'm dumb as rocks, but I get to ask questions that normally I wouldn't be able to ask and I get to learn from the greatest minds. So thank you so much for joining me for a second time, Jerry.

**Jerry Murdock** (4:52)
I'm happy to be here.

**Harry Stebbings** (4:53)
Now I want to touch first on something that you said to me before, which was you said if the Iran war continues to fester, then you expect to see a correction and depending on the depth of the correction, the AI bubble will burst between October the 26th and March 27th. Can you help me understand your thinking here?