11AM Hour: Thoma Bravo Managing Partner Holden Spaht, Kalshi Board Member on New York Lawsuit & Big Tech Earnings Breakdown 7/31/26

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I have no fear of failure.

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**Julia Boorstin** (0:51)
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**David Faber** (0:58)
Good Friday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm David Faber with Seema Modi. We're live from Post9 at the New York Stock Exchange, Carl Quintanilla and Sara Eisen, both of them today. Let's keep an eye on Amazon shares. They're surging while Apple shares are falling. We're going to break down both of the company's quarters, what they may signal about the latest thinking around the trading and AI-related names. Plus, much more in tech valuations. Thoma Bravo, Managing Partner, Holden Spaht joins us. How he's looking at the software sector right now.

**Seema Modi** (1:27)
And New York suing Kalshi today, alleging illegal gambling. We'll discuss the implications of the lawsuit with a member of Kalshi's board. Also this hour, President Trump holding a cabinet meeting at Camp David. We'll monitor that event and bring you the highlights. Let's take a look at markets.
Stocks fading a little bit here. The Dow Industrial is still up by around 65 points. The Nasdaq Composite rebounding here for the third straight day up one third of one percent. But the bond market, David, that is where you could argue is where we're seeing more action with yields climbing.

**David Faber** (1:59)
Yeah. That did have an impact. We're seeing a bit of a rebound now, but certainly has had an impact on the broader market in terms of particularly at the long end, seeing those yields, as you just said, climb. Let's get back to those big tech earnings. Of course, Kate Rooney is covering Amazon. Kenza Segalas has got Apple covered for us. Kate, let's start with you.

**Kate Rooney** (2:18)
Yeah, David. So Amazon really did thread the needle in the quarter. The company showed tangible AI growth and that helped justify higher CapEx spending that Amazon is now forecasting. The AWS AI revenue was a big story, as well as the custom semiconductor business, both of those topping $25 billion in ARR, growing triple digit percentages according to the company. There had been a little bit of jitters around CapEx heading into the print.
Amazon does expect to spend more this year, about $220 billion versus $200 billion that was previously forecasted. CEO Andy Jassy said that is mostly the result of higher cost of memory in particular, pushing that number up. The word of the analyst call, guys, from Andy Jassy was demand. He spent a lot of that call with investors talking about this boom in AWS and client's appetite for AI.

**Andy Jassy** (3:08)
We will still not have enough capacity to meet all the demand we have in 2026 And I believe this dynamic will also be true in 2027 too.
In fact, the demand we already have for 2028 is striking. And remember enterprises are still very early in using inference at scale on their current production applications.

**Kate Rooney** (3:28)
A lot of bullish calls on the street this morning. As a result, Evercore's Mark Mahaney saying that Amazon is coming through the CapEx digestion phase faster and more profitably than feared others calling this a long-awaited growth inflection when you look at AWS. Amazon's earning story overall, the cloud growth, very similar to what we heard from Microsoft, which also blew through expectations on that AI growth. And cloud, the stock added almost $500 billion in market cap on Thursday. That was the most ever by a public company. Amazon also on a tear this week. The stocks had underperformed this year, though heading into results. They are now catching up with some of those double digit gains this week, David.

**Seema Modi** (4:09)
Well, that's certainly resonating the demand story. All good. Yeah, we're watching that stock up 14 percent. Thank you, Kate. Now let's pivot to Apple earnings, a slightly different move there, Mackenzie, without stock down about 9 percent.