11AM Hour: Saks Global CEO on Restructuring, Scotiabank CEO on Global Economy & The Next Wave of Weight Loss Drugs 6/8/26

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This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information-packed daily market preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions, and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and subscribe at schwab.com or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.

Sara Eisen (1:05)

Good Monday morning again, welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sara Eisen with Carl Quintanilla, live from Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. Today, signs of life for the tech rally year after Friday's brutal sell-off, chipmakers looking to bounce back, and investors closely watching headlines out of the Middle East.

Carl Quintanilla (1:19)

Tim Cook's legacies in the spotlight today, what to expect from his final developers conference as Apple CEO.

Sara Eisen (1:26)

And Saks Global edging closer to exiting Chapter 11 bankruptcy as a US court approves its reorganization plan. We'll discuss the path forward with the department store CEO of Saks.

Carl Quintanilla (1:38)

Trying to get a little bounce after the worst day for the S&P of the year. And of course, the NASDAQ's shellacking on Friday down four plus. Cospy was down eight overnight, got some buying definitely in tech, consumer discretionary too up 1 percent.

But yields have been a little sticky. The long bond now 501 We'll watch that.

Sara Eisen (1:56)

Yeah, the 10 year above 45 We're getting some breaking news being from the New York Fed. Steve Leesman has it for us. Steve.

Steve Leisman (2:03)

Hey, yeah, about all important inflation expectations, Sara, and they are stable. Unfortunately, though, they remain at a high level. The one year inflation expectations at 3.5 percent. That is down a tick, but the level is up near where it was around the tariffs. Again, you got to go back to the pandemic era to find expectations that high. Again, the three-year and the five-year unchanged, but still at a relatively high level. The Fed watches those three and five years more carefully for and finds that inflation expectations are a problem. There was a modest drop in gas price expectations, but food and rent price expectations both surged. The outlook for unemployment declined 0.4 percent, and the concern grows about job loss and finding a new job. Guys, in case there was any question, I put a chart together for viewers here about the connection between retail gas price expectations and the one-year inflation expectations. You can see they're very much married at the hip.

As you go out to the three and the five-year range, it becomes a little less glued there. Then take a look at the rate hike expectations, 65 percent for December, and we are now tracking the probability of a second hike. It was above 50 this morning, and now it's 48 percent. So pretty confident in at least one hike this year, Sara, and getting a little more confident or a little more bid right now on a second hike a year from now. Sara, Carl?

Sara Eisen (3:27)

I feel like the key question for the Fed and the story on inflation is going to be whether they need to respond to in the economy.

Steve Leisman (3:40)

I think that's certainly one of the key considerations right there.

You have the inflation question, you have the strong job growth question, Sara, which when I read a lot of the commentary over the weekend, it's throwing a lot of things up in the air. We thought that that to 50,000 range was the range for employment to keep the unemployment rate stable. But we've been doing 100 plus, 172 in the last report, and the unemployment rate hasn't budged. So a little unclear where that is. And then there's some questions about what the neutral rate is right now. Hard to argue that you're restrictive with this kind of job growth. So we'll have to wait and see. But I think right now the Fed is going to be cautious, cautious about inflation with inflation running relatively high on these inflation expectations numbers on the upside.

Carl Quintanilla (4:23)

Yeah, still a big number to come this week. Steve, thank you, Steve Leesman. For more on inflation and the impact on your portfolio, let's bring in Newberger Berman, private wealth managing director Holly Neumann-Croft, who joins us here at Post9. Always great to have you in, H.