10AM Hour: Less Fed Guidance Ahead? Caterpillar and Palantir Surge, Getting Ready for SpaceX’s First Earnings Report 8/4/26

**Sara Eisen** (0:00)
The board recommends approving...

**Alex Karp** (0:01)
Regarding that seat on the committee, we're promoting...

**SPEAKER_3** (0:02)
to most quarterly earnings...

**SPEAKER_4** (0:04)
Every day, shareholders meet to discuss important matters about the companies you invest in. Now you can easily make your voice heard. Vanguard Investor Choice gives you a say in the companies you invest in. With just a few taps, you can set your proxy voting preference for your index funds. Visit vanguard.com/investorchoice to learn more. Vanguard Investors own shares of our index funds, which own shares of the companies they invest in. Available for Vanguard index funds that participate in Investor Choice. Vanguard Marketing Corporation Distributor.

**SPEAKER_5** (0:30)
How do you turn your strategy into action and action into impact? Bold leaders do it through transformative strategy and transactions. Ones that work in practice, not just on paper. At EY Parthenon, we use an investor mindset to help you create value. How?
By combining deep sector experience with AI-powered technology, so you can reimagine your business for tomorrow while building it today.
Shape your future with EY Parthenon. Learn more today.

**Sara Eisen** (1:00)
Good Tuesday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Sara Eisen with Carl Quintanilla and David Faber. We are live as always from Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. Dow and S&P 500 jumping to record highs here following Monday's big rally, driven in large part by MegaCap Tech. We'll talk to noted investor Dan Niles about how long this rally can last. Plus, SpaceX, higher ahead of its first earnings report as a public company, though still well below that IPO price, we'll be joined by an analyst who says it's a buy.
And we'll get to these huge moves in Caterpillar and Palantir and how AI is playing a role in the earnings reports from both of those companies.

**Carl Quintanilla** (1:34)
First of all, let's get some factory orders and jolts from Rick Santelli. Morning, Rick.

**Rick Santelli** (1:38)
Good morning, Carl. Indeed, June, jolts, job opening, labor turnover. Expected to be right around 7.455 million, and it comes in on the light side. 7,359,000. That would be the lightest rate going back to March of this year when we were under 6.9 million. Now, if we look at factory orders, this is a fresh June number. Expecting up 2 tens comes in down 3 tens. Down 3 tens, of course, compares to last month, down 1.3, which makes it, unfortunately, the best month since it was positive over 5 in April. Now, if we take transportation away, it's still a negative number. Expecting up 4 tens, x-trans, we're now down 4 tens. That would be the lightest number, going back to April of 25
Now, let's look at durable goods. And remember, these are final reads. So unlike factory orders, we had a mid-month June. These replaced that. So the headline number was up 3 tens. It improves to up 5 tens. That would be the best read since it was up over 8 And April of this year, x-transportation, we see that the number improves rather markedly.
We see it's up 7 tens, x-transportation. And that would be the best read since May when it was up 1.8 percent. Now let's get to the orders side of the equation. Capital Good Orders, Non-Defense, x-aircraft, Proxy for Capital Spending, something to pay attention to. This is a powerful number, up 1.2 percent. Very strong number. That would be the strongest number since March, which was the high water markup, 3.8. So these have been very, very solid numbers. And finally, if we look at shipments versus orders, also been on the high side, comes in up 2 percent. We're expecting a number a little below that level. Up 2 percent would be the best level. Going back to December of 21, December of 21 when it was up 2.1 percent. So those are very good numbers. They point to some better activity down the road. How did all this square with the markets? Well, we see that we are now down about 5, 5.5, 6 basis points in a 10 year. We're down 5 basis points in a 2 year. Of course, oil is the big driving force here. As potentially some good news on the straights and four moves, we are going to pay very close attention to the market above right around 4.67 in a 10 year is a good technical pivot to use. Sara, back to you.

**Sara Eisen** (4:17)
Okay, thank you, Rick Santelli. Just talking about the bond market, I'll pick it up because there's this debate developing in the markets around the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, and the strategy not to give forward guidance or much on the reaction function. Remember last week, we were going into the Fed meeting and it was kind of a toss up of what he would do. Will they hike? Because he's been so hawkish in his tone in saying, we're very serious about price stability, very serious about inflation. We're not going to let it overheat. We're not going to waver from our mandate. So there was a thought that they should and could raise interest rates to back up that claim. He did not.