Will we see another public sector pay strike?

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The Hard Shoulder with Ciara Kelly and Shane Colman on Newstalk with Kia.

Shane Colman (1:08)

Now in the last hour or so, the Forza Deputy General, Katie Morgan, has said plans for Tiredness Day Strike will continue until members hear that an agreement has been established. For more on this, we are joined by editor of The Business Post, Daniel McConnell. Danny, where do you see this being at at the moment? The government has made its offer.

Does it look like the unions will bite or not?

Daniel McConnell (1:36)

Certainly, Shane, Katie Morgan's message to their 45,000 members today basically says, listen, we're still going ahead, but there is, I think, a kind of an anticipation that there may be enough on the table here to get back into final negotiations to seal a deal. What the government has put on the table is a kind of a headline increase of 11% up until 2029, but for lower income earners, and they're often at the forefront of the discussions, the benefits are likely to be up to 17.8%, which is significant by any stretch of the imagination. There are not many companies in the private sector who would be matching increases at that lower level of up to 18%.

We understand that there's also a payment of up to 1200 euro or 2%, whichever is higher, up for grabs as well.

And essentially these are on top of already existing or pre-committed pay increases. So you could see, if they kick in, that could see people's income going up by more than 4% this year. And that's obviously where inflation is running. So that's obviously seen as significant. But the forces general secretary, Kevin Callaghan, has described the process in its current phase as very difficult. And we know that's probably there's more animus between the sides than there probably has been in quite a number of years in terms of public sector pay deals. Previous governments have obviously put great stock in this idea of industrial peace and have paid pretty hefty for it. Whereas I think in Jack Chambers, we're seeing a public expenditure minister trying to push the reform agenda and the efficiency agenda as much as possible. And ultimately, you know, this is all set amongst the backdrop of what happened in April in the fuel protests. And there's obviously an appetite amongst public sector unions to show their teeth because they think, well, listen, people can shut down the roads for three days and get a massive payout. Then why can't they do something similar? And that's, I think, ultimately, what are the, that's the kind of wider context of the mood music behind what's going on at the moment.

Shane Colman (3:27)

That being said, Danny, I mean, this offer from the government looks like a pretty hefty one. It would be, it would be tricky for the unions to have a day of action on Thursday, given that offer on the table, all the things you outlined, particularly lower paid workers getting increases of up to 17%. That wouldn't be an easy, as easy a sell to the public as the last industrial action a few weeks back.

Daniel McConnell (3:52)

No, it wasn't. And I think what we're seeing Shane play out of the last few weeks is a sort of, you know, kind of almost predictable choreography around this. You know, the first strike, I think was seen as somewhat inevitable. I think, as I said, the unions wanted to show their teeth. The government will come back, you know, with sort of improved offers. But this is sort of, they've gone above and beyond what I think what would have been expected.