Will The Bitcoin Bear Market Ever End? | Anthony Pompliano

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**Anthony Pompliano** (0:50)
Will the Bitcoin bear market ever end? Sentiment is horrible. The price is down and people are wondering, are they now just bag holders with a dream, but no reality? Well, we can see in this chart right here that Bitcoin has almost round tripped the entire 2024-2025 cycle. That doesn't feel good because there's a couple of years now where you've basically got no return if you didn't capture profits at the top of the last bull market. But Michael Saylor says that this capital rotation is really more of an AI story than it is of Bitcoin. Take a listen to Michael talking to Natalie Brunel about why so much capital is chasing the AI trade.

**Michael Saylor** (1:23)
I think that right now we've got this AI summer and you've got SpaceX as an AI company raising a bunch of money in Anthropic and Open AI and Google and Meta and every one of the, you know, we're talking about $500 billion of capital they're working to raise in order to power up their AI data centers. That's creating a hot set of deals that Wall Street is marketing. Everybody wants to get into the deal. They want to flip the deal. And so while those deals are coming, they're creating a suction, and they're sucking capital out of every other asset class. And one or two percent of that capital is coming from Bitcoin.
Once the deals have gone through, then the early hedge funds and traders, they'll flip it and they'll rotate back the other way. So the hot money will come back, and then eventually the lockups will expire, and everybody that got rich off of those things, they will go and diversify and they'll come back into Bitcoin. So, I think it's like a 12 to 24 week cycle. Like, you know, I don't know if it'll fix itself in four weeks, but I think by the end of the year, we'll have gotten through that AI summer, you know, suction activity. And, you know, just like Austrian economists would say, you know, if the price of Bitcoin falls, that makes Bitcoin more appealing, right? And so, it's with our credit, as the credit falls, it's more appealing to buy it as the equity and the Bitcoin fall, there's more reason to buy it. And so, at some point, the market will adjust and the capital will first go to the AI trade and then it will come back to digital assets and come back to the Bitcoin ecosystem. Because at the end of the day, the people with the capital, they're capitalists. They're not in love with any of this. They're like, I was in that, now I'll do this, now I'll go back to that.
And they're moving the capital around. And so, I think toward the end of the year, we should see a reversal of the trend.

**Anthony Pompliano** (3:37)
Now, it's not just Michael who believes that the AI trade is taking away some of the enthusiasm and excitement from Bitcoin. Jordi Visser also believes something similar. Take a listen to Jordi's explanation. What's your take as to what's going on with Bitcoin?

**Jordi Visser** (3:47)
First of all, it's in a bear market. I'm gonna say it every single day until it's not in a bear market. When we break above the 200-day moving average, it will change. Until that happens, it is a bear market. Every single time it runs into any moving average, the most recent one was the 20 moving average, it falls back down. You mentioned the money going into AI. When SpaceX happened this week, it became obvious. SpaceX and Bitcoin are basically to me the same thing. SpaceX is a future risk. They're both going to the moon. Well, they're both based on a belief that people have in the future. They're not about anything fundamental right now. It's very hard to make an argument as to the fundamentals behind this. I love when people send me things and they're going, you're wrong, SpaceX is overvalued. I'm like, no, when something doesn't have a valuation, it can't be overvalued or undervalued. It has no valuation. It's a complete guess. We're talking about flying to Mars. We're talking about flying to the moon and building space stations.