Why Russia cannot become a democracy

Shirvan (0:00)

Russia is defined by its geography. Size is its most distinctive trait, a trait that is both an advantage and a liability. Much of its territory is indefensible. There are no mountains, oceans, or deserts separating the Russian demographic core from its rivals. Sure, Russia has buffer spaces in all directions, but keeping a tab on a nation spanning 11 time zones and nearly 200 ethnic minorities requires more than just buffer space. Holding the Russian geography together from Kaliningrad to Vladivostok necessitates either wealth or force. But since the Russian economy has always been inadequate, force is the prevailing choice. By its very nature, the size of the Russian standing army and intelligence apparatus has to match the size of its territory. And this story of how the Russian government machinery evolved also explains why it cannot become a democratic state in its current territorial configuration. Despotism, it seems, is embedded into the Russian geography. And it is the unforgiving power of geography that determines the character and virtues of a people. Or lack thereof.

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Life was tough in the 14th century, especially in the proximity of Moscovy. There were only two items that were commercially viable for trade, slaves and fur. But the Mongol conquest of Kievan Rus cut Moscovy off from the Mediterranean slave market, leaving fur as the sole export commodity available. So, to dominate the fur trade, Moscovy expanded north. But these expansions were not hostile takeovers. Rather, the Moscovites lobbied their envoys into the courts of the neighboring provinces, forming coalition offices that were later diplomatically annexed. It was a soft power policy that took well over a century to take shape. Slowly but assuredly, the medieval cities of Pskov, Novgorod, Smolensk, Vyazma, Rzhev, Mazayevsk, Tver, Kolomna, Ryazan, Murom, Rostov, Vladimir, Yaroslavl, Nizhny Novgorod, Vologda, Galich, Vyatka, Ustuk and Salikansk all fell in line. Maps old and new alike to this soft power expansion no justice, because the homogenous colors imply a homogenous domain with standardized regulations. But medieval kingdoms were more like conglomerates of diverse territories. And that's what Moscovy was. In 1480, after integrating the last nearby Slavic realms, Moscovy turned its focus on the fertile lands to the south, which was ruled by the Golden Horde.

Fur was a valuable commodity, but to grow in size and strength to seal Moscovy as a powerhouse, agriculture was needed. Slavic farmers needed to settle in the fertile farmlands south of the Oka River. To accomplish that, Moscovy needed to oust the Golden Horde. After back-and-forth hostilities, the Golden Horde fell to infighting. Several new kingdoms emerged in its place, including Kazan, Astrakhan, Crimea, and Siber.

Moscovite envoys acted quickly and lobbied into the courts of the Tatar kingdoms. Over the next decades, the Moscovites gained influence within the Tatar courts.

Moscovy slowly eroded their sovereign powers, appointed regents and magistrates, and chipped away at their strategic defenses, until finally deciding to abolish their self-rule and massacre the civilian populations. By conquering the Tatar kingdom of Kazan in 1552, Moscovy transformed into a fully-fledged empire, along with all its responsibilities.

Kazan was situated near the confluence of the Volga and Kama rivers.

So, by controlling Kazan, Moscovy was able to expand down the Volga river towards the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, and up the Kama river to the Ural Mountains. However, as Moscovy transformed into Russia, the power of the monarchy was centralized. This came at a tremendous cost to the civilian population. To keep tabs on the nobility, Tsar Ivan the Terrible set up the Aprichnik in 1565 It was the first political police in Russian history. Ivan used the notorious Aprichnik to undermine the influence of the nobility and control the newly emerging trading routes going through Kazan. Anyone or any house that posed even a remote threat was eliminated swiftly and completely. The Aprichnik was so competent in intimidating the populace that later Russian leaders kept employing it. And as Russia's economic center of gravity shifted south and east, the political police, by then reformed and expanded, became indispensable in holding the empire together. From 1551 to 1700, Russia grew by 35,000 square kilometers per year, or one Belgium a year. However, as Russia grew, it made new enemies on all fronts. To the west, there were the Swedes, the Poles, the Prussians, and the Germans. While to the south, there were the Turks, the Tatars, the Cossacks, and the Caucasian tribes. Russia was extremely vulnerable to a coordinated land invasion, especially since its territory was mostly flat. What followed was a period of total war, where Russia fought rival powers in multiple directions. It was either conquer or be conquered.