Why OpenAI Thinks AGI Is Here | Behind the Numbers

Marcus Johnson (0:00)

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Hey gang, it's Friday, September 18th. Yes, great, Jacob, our listeners. Welcome. The only reason I know that is because Danny just said it before we hit record. Yory, Jacob, our listeners, welcome to Behind the Numbers, an EMARKETER Podcast made possible by Atmosphere TV. I'm Marcus and join me for today's conversation. We have living in California, analyst, Jacob Bourne.

Jacob Bourne (0:45)

Thanks for having me today, Marcus.

Marcus Johnson (0:47)

Of course, mate. Thank you for being here and calling New Jersey home principal analyst, Yory Wurmser.

Yory Wurmser (0:52)

Hey Marcus, how are you?

Marcus Johnson (0:53)

Hey fellow, very good. How are you?

Yory Wurmser (0:55)

I'm doing great. Happy to be here.

Marcus Johnson (0:57)

Thanks. You're lucky. You're lucky, folks. I kept him on the episode just talking about Spain. Spanish football, not the country. The country is great. The football team infuriates me because they're so good. They always beat us. Anyway, today's fact is where we begin.

So which North American cities have grown the most in the last 20 years? So Visual Capitalist had an article with data from the US Census, Matt Cannon, the St. Louis Fed. They say, they guess is, gents, on the city that's grown the most by percentage, not total people.

It's a dark horse. I would never have guessed it. East Coast, to give you a hint. Not obvious at all.

Yory Wurmser (1:39)

I was going to go with Austin, but East Coast.

Jacob Bourne (1:41)

Yeah, I was not going to go East Coast at all. So that really throws me.

Marcus Johnson (1:49)

Go ahead.

Jacob Bourne (1:51)

Somewhere in North Carolina.

Yory Wurmser (1:52)

Yeah.

Marcus Johnson (1:53)

Oh my goodness. Yes.

Yory Wurmser (1:55)

Charlotte.

Jacob Bourne (1:56)

Okay.

Yory Wurmser (1:56)

Wow.

Marcus Johnson (1:57)

Well played. Sorry, Yory, what did you say?

Yory Wurmser (1:59)

No, I said genius.

Marcus Johnson (2:01)

Well played. Charlotte. Charlotte. Fastest growth, 93% growing, nearly doubling the highest percentage gain among major Canadian and US cities. Western and Southern metros like Phoenix and Orlando, Phoenix plus 33%, Orlando plus 53%, outpaced Northern US counterparts such as New York plus 6%, just 6% for the state. City, for the city, plus 6% in the last 20 years. And Chicago, 0%, underscoring a Southward population shift.

LA is, it's only grown by 1%, believe it or not, Jacob. San Francisco by 12, that's where you are, close to where you are. San Diego by 14

They didn't have, well, I've got some stuff on New Jersey state in a second. Top three, Charlotte, Orlando and Houston by percentage. What will happen in the next 25 years? The University of Virginia, Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service and US. Census expect is by state now, Idaho, Utah and Texas and Florida to grow their populations the most by between 30 to 40 percent each. In the next 25 years, New York will lose 5 percent, that's the state, California 2 percent and more people for you, Yory, New Jersey will grow by five.

Yory Wurmser (3:19)

I'll take it.

Marcus Johnson (3:20)

We're probably going to go to...

What's the town I always blank on? Where does Rob Rubin live?

Yory Wurmser (3:29)

My town, Montclair.

Marcus Johnson (3:31)

Oh, you're Montclair too? I bet they all go to Montclair. It's this paradise apparently. I can't wait to go.

Yory Wurmser (3:36)

It's pretty nice.

Marcus Johnson (3:39)

I'll see you soon, Yory. Anyway, today's real topic, why OpenAI thinks AGI is here.

Yes, we're entering the era of artificial general intelligence, writes Stephen Rosenbush of the Wall Street Journal. He notes that OpenAI recently proclaimed that the release of its GPT-6 Astra model may be regarded in the near future as the beginning of artificial general intelligence. We'll be referring to it, I'm sure, as AGI. He says, the company is almost certainly correct in one sense. We're bound to look back on this period as the beginning of AGI. But in all probability, we've been in this technological stage for nearly a year, even though it was hard to notice, given the relentless debate over the financial, economic, and social dimensions of AI. Jacob, I'll start with you. What would convince you that AGI had actually arrived?

Jacob Bourne (4:34)

Well, I think there's a strong argument to be made that it's already been here. It's here and it's already been here. It really depends on how you define it, which is the problem. How do you define it? It's a very difficult term to define. It's big.