Why North Korea wants nuclear weapons

Shirvan (0:00)

Most people casually dismiss the North Korean government as either crazy or insane. Even though its past decisions have caused widespread famine, resulted in an economic meltdown, and the personality cult surrounding Kim is nothing short of totalitarian, there is strategic thought behind the nuclear program. In fact, it may well be the most sensible thing in North Korea. My name is Shirvan, and welcome to CaspianReport. Recent developments in the Korean Peninsula have revived fears over Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs. Up until now, Washington has relied on additional sanctions and enhanced regional missile defenses to keep North Korea's nuclear ambitions in check. However, at the same time, President Trump has made it clear that he will keep all options open.

Currently, the United States has three military options to disable North Korea's nuclear program. The first being a surgical strike or a cyberattack that is limited to a single object. The target may well be a facility or a base, but the goal is to deter Pyongyang from continuing to develop a nuclear arsenal. There is no guarantee that such a surgical strike will ease Pyongyang's nuclear and missile development. However, targeting a single object offers the best way to keep the situation from escalating. Washington's second option is to conduct limited strikes that physically interrupt North Korea's programs. These attacks will focus solely on the country's missile and nuclear infrastructure, which signals that Washington is not trying to overthrow the North Korean government. This kind of operation would send a clear message to Pyongyang to change the course of its programs, but it also has a much higher risk of full-scale retaliation. The final American option is a comprehensive military campaign that seeks to eliminate North Korea's retaliatory capabilities.

This scenario would happen if Washington believes that Pyongyang is likely to launch a counterattack regardless. This option would disable the North Korean threat in the long term, but it also effectively guarantees a full-blown war in the Korean Peninsula.

The general mood in Washington and other major Western capitals is in favor of a hardline approach. However, Trump's decision depends on the anticipated reaction from Kim's government. But only by looking at the problem from the other side's point of view, can we make progress.

So should Trump decide to carry out a military strike against Kim, the immediate impact would be devastating for Pyongyang. The truth is, North Korea is unable to prevent an American strike, but its retaliation capabilities are well within means. Pyongyang relies on its conventional military hardware to discourage the United States and its allies from taking military action against the North.

The country has a wide range of short and medium-range systems that can inflict enormous damage to large portions of South Korea, including its capital. So far, this status quo has maintained the balance of power in the peninsula. However, as the technological gap between Seoul and Pyongyang widens, many of the North Korean systems are increasingly obsolete, meaning North Korea is gradually losing its conventional deterrent. As Pyongyang's retaliation capabilities diminish over time, the ruling elite believes that it's only a matter of time until the Americans decide to strike. Therefore, to ensure the preservation of the government, the North Korean elite is working towards a national security that is based on asymmetric capabilities and weapons of mass destruction. As such, Kim's government has made tremendous investments to develop long-range ballistic missiles. The country has made progress towards long-range missile technology under the Taepodong-2 space launch program.

But Pyongyang has also displayed two other long-range ballistic missiles, namely the KN-08 and KN-14, which it claims could reach North America.

It's uncertain whether these claims are true, because these missiles have not yet been tested. However, what is certain is the capacity of the Musadal missiles, which are within striking capabilities of US air and naval bases in Guam, Okinawa, etc. In short, North Korea's conventional military is gradually becoming obsolete. Hence, Pyongyang looks to nuclear weapons and ballistic missile technologies to establish a new deterrent. In this context, by acquiring nuclear weapons, the government of Kim seeks to ensure its preservation. Recent geopolitical events have only increased Pyongyang's resolve. Looking back at the history of North Korea's nuclear weapons program, one can see the revival of Pyongyang's pursuit of ballistic and nuclear technology following the US invasion of Iraq, and the subsequent dismantlement of the government of Saddam. Shortly following the American invasion of Iraq, Libya's ruler, Khadafi, gave up on his entire weapons of mass destruction capacity. He opened up to international inspections and sought to normalize relations with the United States. Then, the Arab Spring erupted in 2011 The government in Tunisia and Egypt were overthrown. In Libya, clashes between law enforcement agencies and opposition movements turned to violence. And as soon as the first shot was fired, Washington abandoned its agreement with Tripoli. Instead, the American leadership encouraged a revolt and intervened along with NATO to aid the Libyan rebels. The military intervention led to the capture and death of Khadafi. Meanwhile, Libya fell into total chaos. Jihadist groups rose and subsequently, it further destabilized the nations in the Sahel region. Nearly the same scenario unfolded in Iraq due to the downfall of Saddam's government. From North Korean perspective, the deaths of Saddam and Khadafi validates that one should never give up on its nukes. Since 2011, Kim's government has not shown any shred of interest in the promises of favorable economic cooperation or guarantees of security. In fact, the death of Khadafi was a wake-up call for the North Koreans. It strengthened their resolve. And to that end, Pyongyang quadrupled its nuclear program efforts and significantly increased missile testing. Currently, the North Korean elite believes that if unrest erupts in the country, having nuclear weapons will make the United States and its allies think twice before aiding rebels. It is for this reason that Pyongyang believes that nuclear weapons are vital to the survival of the government. To a certain extent, there is truth in this. The US government has a long record of overthrowing uncooperative foreign leaders, but none of them had nukes.