Why Is Thinking Clearly So Difficult? - Tim Harford - #548

**Chris Williamson** (0:00)
Hello, friends. welcome back to the show. My guest today is Tim Harford. He's an economist, associate member of Nuffield College Oxford, an honorary fellow of the Royal Statistical Society, a journalist and an author. Humans need to be able to accurately judge the world around them. With more information than ever, this should be getting easier by the year, and yet clear thinking seems to become increasingly elusive. Why are we so prone to biases? And what are some of the biggest rationality blunders from history? Expect to learn why Sir Arthur Conan Doyle got obsessed with photos of fairies, what everyone misunderstands about inflation, the danger indiscriminate doubt and reflective cynicism have, the similarities between magic and misinformation, why smart people get hijacked by ideology, and much more. In other news, this episode is brought to you by Ava Jane's Kitchen Colima Sea Salt. This salt, hand-harvested from the ancient Colima Salt Flats in Mexico, is delicious, crunchy, and free of ocean-borne microplastics. Tastes great on everything from steak to cookies and watermelon. It has no added fluoride, iodine, or anti-caking agents. And with every purchase, you'll be supporting the locals that work tirelessly to source this delicious salt. I'm a big fan of having high-quality salt. It makes a big difference, especially given that salt is such an important part of the taste that you're going to get in the meals that you're eating even more, especially if you're having it on steak. And you can get your first bag of Colima Sea Salt absolutely free. All that you need to do is pay for the shipping. If you go to modernwisdomsalt.com, that's modernwisdomsalt.com to get your first bag of Colima Sea Salt absolutely free. Shipping is only available in America. In other other news, this episode is brought to you by Surfshark VPN. Protect your browsing online and get access to the entire world's Netflix library for less than the price of a cup of coffee per month. Hackers and website and your internet service provider are trying to see your data and then sell it to advertisers or do even worse things with it. And using a VPN immediately protects you from all of this nastiness. On top of that, it takes less than 60 seconds to set up. You download the app, press one button and you are away with secured browsing and it gives you access to the whole world's Netflix library and lets you use services like HBO Max and Disney Plus while you're abroad. You can use Surfshark across unlimited devices, your laptop, your iPad, your phone and even your smart TV so you get that unlimited Netflix library access no matter what you're watching on. Also, there is a 30-day money back guarantee, an 83% discount and 3 months free if you go to surfshark.deals slash modern wisdom. That's surfshark.deals slash modern wisdom. And in final news, this episode is brought to you by Athletic Greens. You are not eating enough fruit and vegetables in your diet and you know it and this is going to help. One scoop of Athletic Greens contains 75 vitamins, minerals and whole food sourced ingredients including a multivitamin, multi-mineral, pre and probiotic green superfood blend and more that all work together to fill the nutritional gaps in your diet. It increases energy and focus, aids with digestion and supports a healthy immune system all without the need to take multiple products or pills. It's even NSF certified for sports in the US, meaning that Olympians can use it and the recipe has been updated 53 times over the last decade as new research has come in. It's lifestyle friendly whether you eat keto, paleo, vegan, dairy free or gluten free and it contains less than one gram of sugar without compromising on taste. Also, there is a 60-day money back guarantee so you can buy it and try it for 59 days and if you do not like it, they will give you your money back. Head to athleticgreens.com/modernwisdom to get a year's free supply of vitamin D, five free travel packs, free pots, shakers and a 60-day money back guarantee all under one roof. That's athleticgreens.com/modernwisdom.
But now, ladies and gentlemen, please welcome Tim Harford.
Tim Harford, welcome to the show.

**Tim Harford** (4:34)
Oh, it's great to join you.

**Chris Williamson** (4:36)
What would you say your area of expertise is? It seems like a relatively diverse background.

**Tim Harford** (4:44)
Yeah, it's a good question. I'd say I'm a professional nerd. Does that help? I mean, I trained as an economist, actually also as a philosopher, but that sounds slightly pretentious. So let's just say I trained as an economist. And then after a few other adventures, became a writer in print, books, Financial Times column. So obviously writing about economics. And then began a radio for BBC Radio 4 program about statistics. And so I had to learn pretty quickly about statistics. And over time, it's just got more and more into anything that's interesting in social science, behavioral economics, psychology, economics, statistics, data, data visualization. And along all of that, I've become very, very interested in stories, which I explore in my Cautionary Tales podcast and all my books.