Why are the US midterms so important for Trump's presidency?

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The Hard Shoulder, with Ciara Kelly and Shane Colman.

Ciara Kelly (0:35)

On Newstalk, with Ciara.

Now, with less than a week to go before the US midterm elections, Democrats have some reason to believe that a Senate takeover may be within their grasp, even if the finish line remains some distance away. And joining us now to discuss this is Niall Stanage, White House columnist with The Hill. Good evening to you, Niall. Obviously, things like the economy, inflation, the cost of living, these are at the forefront of people's minds, I would imagine, currently in terms of these elections. How precarious a position is Donald Trump in?

Niall Stanage (1:11)

Well, his party is certainly in a very precarious position. It is widely expected that the Democrats will take the majority in the House of Representatives. Republicans only have a very narrow majority there as it is.

As you say, Democratic hopes are rising of taking a majority in the Senate. Even a year ago, that would have seemed an unlikely prospect, but it's now much more within the bounds of possibility because of some of the reasons that you mentioned.

Ciara Kelly (1:38)

Five sort of seats, there's 35 up for grabs in the Senate, but five seats look like they could go either way.

Are those particular states involved? Are there issues there that will dictate the outcome?

Niall Stanage (1:52)

Well, it depends.

You're saying five, other people are counting up to nine. It depends how you define battleground states.

There are, I would say, specific issues at play in some of them. For example, in Texas, that is typically a very Republican state, but Ken Paxton is the Republican Senate nominee there, having defeated an incumbent Republican senator in the primary. He did so with Trump's backing, but Paxton is a rather colorful figure, and James Tallarico, the Democratic nominee in Texas, has a real chance and is up in the polls there. Conversely and briefly, in Michigan, Democrats are seeking to hold a seat where a Democratic senator has retired. The Democratic nominee is Abdul El-Sayed. He is going up against Mike Rogers, and frankly, some of the attacks on El-Sayed have been fairly blatantly bigoted, in my view.

Ciara Kelly (2:48)

Yeah, very blatantly racist. I think a lot of people would agree with you on that.

Obviously, that's the Senate, 35 of the 100 seats up, all the seats up in the House, all 435 seats. They need 218, is that right, for a majority? Would you say 10 or 11 swing states there as well?

Niall Stanage (3:10)

Yeah, I mean, the House is a bit of a different scenario because it tends to be a lot more gerrymandered districts where Republicans or Democrats have solid majorities. So the kind of massive swings that one would have seen even during, say, the Bill Clinton presidency are very difficult now. That being said, Democrats only need to pick up a handful of seats to get into the majority, as you say, 218 majority. And it would be very surprising. I mean, people would be amazed if Democrats did not succeed in taking the majority there.

Ciara Kelly (3:47)

Yeah, even though there has been some redrawing of electoral maps, etc., that people would suggest have favoured the Republicans.

If it goes the way people are predicting, and I think currently most people are saying around a nine-point percentage lead for the Democrats, notwithstanding there's a bit of variation depending on who you listen to. If it goes the way people expect, what will that mean for the Trump presidency going forward, Niall?

Niall Stanage (4:14)

I think perhaps the most spectacular or headline-making thing it will mean is that Trump administration officials will be subject to investigation by a Democratic majority house. I mean, technically, they're subject to investigation now, but the Republican majority isn't going to investigate them. So if Democrats take the majority, we could see a lot of high-ranking Trump officials dragged up before Congress to testify on any one of the many controversies that are part of this. Obviously, the other part is a Democratic majority, even in the House, would block legislative action that Trump would wish to take, for the most part. The only caveat I'd put on that, Ciara, is a lot of the most controversial things Trump has done have not actually been done through the legislature. They've been done by executive order, by fiat, basically.