US Midterms: Voting booths are open - who will win?

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

The Hard Shoulder, with Ciara Kelly and Shane Colman. On Newstalk, with Ciara.

Ciara Kelly (0:08)

Now, of course, today is the final day of voting in those crucial midterm elections in the US. And joining us now with the latest is White House columnist at The Hill, Niall Stanage. Good evening to you, Niall. Well, it's evening here. I know it's earlier in the day there. How is it panning out, do we know? Are the expected blue waves happening in various states? And is this going to be a bad day for Republicans as we have heard?

Niall Stanage (0:36)

If the polls are right, it's going to be a bad day for Republicans. The polls have been moving increasingly in the Democratic direction, even in very competitive Senate races. Of course, we'll find out in about, I guess, approximately 12 hours time.

It isn't really possible, in my view, to extrapolate much from early voting numbers. We do see reports of high turnout, but I could make an equally plausible case why that is good for Republicans or good for Democrats.

Ciara Kelly (1:04)

Okay.

And we do know, of course, that Republicans and Trump in particular doesn't always poll well or accurately that people seem to pretend that they're not going to vote for Donald Trump. And then they do. Could that undermine, I suppose, what we are expecting to see happen? Or are we beyond that margin of error, do you think?

Niall Stanage (1:27)

I think that could be an issue. Polling here is becoming more and more problematic, in large part because the most MAGA people are basically the most reluctant to answer pollsters' inquiries. Now, against that, in the past, it has more been the case that there has been a big polling error when Trump himself is on the ballot. Obviously, he himself is not on the ballot today, even though he has suggested so.

But some of the polls that we have been getting seem dubious. I mean, there was one yesterday from a highly reputable pollster saying Abdul El-Sayed was up 11 points in Michigan. Even some El-Sayed supporters would be surprised if he runs out the winner by 11 points there.

Ciara Kelly (2:11)

Maybe before I let you go, Niall, that announcement by Donald Trump that he's going to end the four billion dollars rather than euros in funding to Israel by the end of the year. The timing of that, is that quite significant, do you think? Does that smack a little bit of desperation about what's going on in the Middle East?

Niall Stanage (2:29)

I think it smacks a little bit of a desperation of the position he's in in the polls here. American opinions on the Israel question have reversed quite sharply over the past couple of years. I'm not sure that that announcement is going to have a massive impact because generally speaking when Donald Trump promises anything regarding money to anybody, it's wise to be cautious about that promise.

Ciara Kelly (2:52)

Yes, we shall see if it actually stops by the end of the year. But thank you very much for joining us Niall. That's Niall Stanage there, White House columnist at The Hill and we're now joined by Brett Bruen, White House advisor during the Obama Democrat administration. Good evening to you, Brett. I'm not sure if you heard what I was talking to Niall about there, but the timing of Donald Trump, I suppose, tiptoeing backwards from Israel, that is significant, isn't it?

Brett Bruen (3:16)

Well, look, I agree with Niall that it does smack of desperation. I think yesterday, for those in Ireland who saw the images of President Trump looking dejected and quite frankly deflated by the reflecting pool is he delivered a closing message which I have to say even by Trumpian standards was just bizarre. Talking about cleaning pipes and caulking pools. I mean, if I was looking at installing a pool, maybe that was useful, but it certainly didn't bring it over the line for Republicans.

Ciara Kelly (3:53)

As you say, if you were installing a pool, though, perhaps. You, I presume, are quietly confident that this will be a good day for Democrats.

Brett Bruen (4:02)

I'm going to be more than quietly confident. I am going to express that confidence.

Ciara Kelly (4:07)

Do be loudly confident if you would so choose.

Brett Bruen (4:10)

Look, I've been through the trauma of 2016 when obviously a lot of my former Obama colleagues were on the Hillary campaign, 2020, where we fared a bit better. But then 2024 obviously brings back a lot of painful memories. And yet, I do think for folks in Ireland, the key thing if you're going to bed before, let's say five in the morning here on the East Coast of the US, look at turnout. And I disagree with the comment earlier. I think that high turnout is going to speak to a blue wave. They're now talking about a blue tsunami. Because the folks that are going in such large numbers, what we do know from pollsters is that they are coming from backgrounds that are not MAGA.