URGENT UPDATE - Iran War Expert: 70% Chance US Sends Troops To Iran THIS WEEK! | Robert Pape

**Robert Pape** (0:00)
Iran is stronger today than it was before the war started. And this is literally the nightmare scenario that we've been worrying about. And the reason you're having to hear is because in the next few months, the world economic crisis is going to grow.

**Steven Bartlett** (0:14)
And it does appear that you've been largely correct about what you said would happen.

**Robert Pape** (0:18)
It's because I've been modelling the bombing of Iran for 20 years, and I've advised every White House from 2001 to 2024 on different issues related to conflict. And right now, we're coming into the Sage III prediction. We're like on the Titanic, and we're about to hit the iceberg. And when the iceberg hits, there's not enough lifeboats for everybody. So we are knocking on the door of the world literally running out of oil. And then on top of that, Steven, we have another set of problems. For example, Iran is attacking our base in Jordan, and we're in our ninth day of bombing in a row. And the scale of eliminating the drone and missile threat is much bigger than people realize, because they hide those drones everywhere.

**Steven Bartlett** (1:05)
So how real is the risk that the US will do some kind of limited ground operation with boots on the ground in Iran?

**Robert Pape** (1:11)
It's bordering on 70% now, probably by the end of this week. But I'm concerned about terrorist attack because controlling pieces of homeland territory is the biggest risk factor for suicide terrorism. So the choice is, do we have a global economic crisis, possibly recession, possibly worse, or do we let Iran control the Strait of Hormuz?

**Steven Bartlett** (1:32)
This is not a good place to be. So what is the most probable next thing that you think happens?

**Robert Pape** (1:37)
I think that question, Stephen, is the most important question in the world. And I think the answer is...

**Steven Bartlett** (1:47)
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Robert Pape, with everything that's going on with Iran at the moment, the US-Iran war and everything that I've learned from you in the two previous conversations we've had on The Diary Of A CEO, I'm guessing that you're not really surprised by what we're seeing now.

**Robert Pape** (2:36)
No, I'm not. I've been modeling the bombing of Iran for 20 years.
The fact is the modeling has held up and literally month by month by month. When we were first here, the big surprise for most people was that we bombed the regime in Iran and it still stood. It survived even though we killed the supreme leader and something like 137 of their top leaders. Think about that. So that would be like if somebody killed our president, his wife, the first lady, members of the first family, half of the cabinet, all of the leaders in the Pentagon, all of the leaders in the CIA, and about a third of the Congress.
That is what we did to Iran in those opening weeks in March. And nonetheless, that regime survived. And that was something that modeling showed for that 20 years. That was based on substantial patterns in history where air power alone had never toppled a regime, going all the way back to World War I. Most people had not really heard that before. Many people, even in the military, did not fully know how much President Trump went up against the weight of history. Then we shifted. We shifted to six weeks of a bombing campaign. And then what did we do? We shifted over to a two month blockade. Well, that was another version of punishment.

**Steven Bartlett** (4:04)
So the US said that they were gonna block the Strait of Hormuz, basically trying to take control of it themselves. And therefore kind of punishing the rest of the world.

**Robert Pape** (4:13)
Well, they didn't want to punish the world.
That did happen. But what they wanted to do was punish Iran. So they were trying to coerce Iran to get the government to surrender control of Hormuz. So keep in mind what happened is on February 28th, that regime change bombing happened and it went on for a few days. But by March 2nd, March 3rd, Iran controlled Hormuz. Literally within a few days, the ships stopped cold. And they basically have not reopened except for teeny tiny periods of time in a modest way. And then you're stuck. How do you get Iran to give up control of Hormuz? Or do you let Iran continue to control Hormuz for as far as the eye can see?