Ukraine turning into a ‘Forever War’

Shirvan (0:01)

Ukraine has had a bountiful harvest. It has taken out more than 8,600 Russian assets, including tanks, armored vehicles, aircraft, and numerous naval vessels, all coming at the price tag of $18 billion in military spending up to mid-November 2022 The cost-benefit analysis of American support for Ukraine is exceptionally profitable. The Pentagon has spent a little over 5% of its defense budget at the time to eat away at Russia's combat readiness. All this while having no American boots on the ground. The billions of dollars spent have steadily increased since November, but from an arms race lens, it is an incredible return on investment.

Russians, however, see it differently. From their perspective, the war is about scale. The Ukrainians cannot fight a war of attrition. They don't have the numbers. So, Russian military officials figure, the longer the hostilities last, the more the outcome will favor Russia, which can muster more resources. What is happening and likely to continue in the coming months are more missile attacks, drone strikes, artillery bombardments, and hundreds of thousands more fresh recruits sent to the battlefield. And while the Russians gather their numbers and assemble their tanks and missiles, they're about to find out why America has no universal health care.

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After considering all the setbacks and the casualties, after giving the whole armed conflict careful, meticulous thought, Russia has decided to make things worse.

As many as 500,000 fresh conscripts are currently being trained and equipped for another go at Kiev in the summer. Russia is also mass producing weapons beyond the Urals, likely loitering munitions, cruise missiles and hypersonic systems. Upon completion, Russia's new offensive could see movement from either Donbass in the east, Kerson in the south, or even Belarus in the north. That seems like complete madness, but it's the madness that fits Russia's strategy thus far. And while Ukraine is better prepared than ever, 500,000 soldiers, regardless of how ill-equipped and trained, is a lot to defend against. Ukraine is now in a race against time. It needs to get more weapons, tanks, artillery, and a lot more ammunition before Russia's major offensive. Ukraine could be lost if the necessary weapons are not gathered in time. America has since stepped up its support. The exact amount of aid given by the United States is difficult to determine. Aid has come in the form of multiple programs, loans, and military assistance packages. However, from January 2022 to January 2023, the United States sent more than 76 billion dollars in aid to Ukraine. 61% of that sum was earnmarked for defense.

For America, the war in Ukraine has become a proxy conflict with Russia, a conflict that can be fought without any American casualties, while also giving NATO a renewed mandate. It may be difficult to comprehend, but the 76 billion dollars aid package is low in grand strategic terms. It certainly is many times lower than the costs of the Afghan or Iraqi conflicts. As far as proxy conflicts go, Ukraine is a bargain. But the Ukrainians can only continue the fight so long as the Americans keep sending financial and material aid. This is not to take away from Ukrainian tactics and strategy, but foreign aid has given Ukraine the means to sustain its operations, giving it an edge in intelligence, technology and communications. Russia's loss of manpower and weapons and the fact that the Russians already pay an increasingly higher share of their GDP to fight in Ukraine is a win for the United States.

Russia has lost so much that its combat readiness will not pose a danger to Europe in the near future, all at the cost of 18 billion dollars in military spending up to mid-November 2022 These billions of dollars matter, and they come at the expense of alternative civilian programs, but the US economy currently stands at 25 trillion dollars. And for as long as the Ukrainians keep eating away at Russian military capabilities, those billions of dollars are worth it in grand strategic terms. But if this be a conflict of numbers, the Kremlin is game. Russia has teamed up with Iran to build missile production facilities beyond the Ural Mountains. It has also purchased thousands of cheap Iranian drones. The aim is to use large numbers of low-cost cruise missiles and loitering munitions to exhaust Ukrainian air defenses and then, in due time, flip the cost-benefit analysis in their favor.