U.S. elections: what to expect

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Ciara Kelly (0:28)

That's fieldmaps.ie The Inside Track on Newstalk As we gear up for the US to go to the polls next week, I'm joined now by Scott Lucas, Professor of US and International Politics at the Clinton Institute in UCD. Scott, you're very welcome to The Inside Track. So we're going to hear so much over the next seven days about the midterms. I'm sure there'll be wall to wall coverage here on Newstalk and indeed all over our television news screens. Let's take a little step back, though, Scott, and remind people, I suppose, what these midterms are all about and what exactly is up for grabs here.

Scott Lucas (1:11)

So every two years in the United States, all 435 seats in the lower chamber of Congress, the House of Representatives, are up for grabs. That's sort of on a constituency basis. Then in the Senate, where, of course, you have two senators from each state, because they serve six-year terms, only 35 of the 100 seats are up for this year.

But the importance is amplified this year, not only because the Republican majorities are so small in both chambers. So that raises the prospect that the opposition Democrats could win or even both of them. But also, I think that the issues that have been raised, the economy, the war on Iran, even beyond this, this sort of unprecedented grab for power by the Trump camp and what it's meant, I think that that's heightened interest in the midterms, probably to a greater level than I can remember in my lifetime.

Ciara Kelly (2:07)

I mean, there's going to be so much polling within the next seven days, but there is polling that suggests there that the situation and the outlook for the Democrats is improving day on day. What are the chances do you think at this point, looking at all of the states and given all of your knowledge of them taking the House and the Senate? Or is it really far too early to tell?

Scott Lucas (2:28)

I think there's been a marked shift since the summer. I think going into the summer, the Democrats were like possibly they could take the House, but it was only an outside chance of getting the Senate. Now, you know, not just the polls, actually going into state by state and reading what the situation is. The Democrats appear to be safe in getting a majority in the House of Representatives. The only question now is how big the majority will be. You know, will it be five? Will it be ten?

Right now, best estimates are around about 20 seat majority. And that's important because if you have the majority, you control the committees. And the committees are much more powerful in the US Congress than they are here in the Aractus or in the UK Parliament. The Senate is much closer.

I'd say right now that, again, the Republicans were on to protect the 53 to 47 majority until the autumn. And then, just the rising unpopularity of Donald Trump over the economy, over the war in Iran, has meant that you probably have the Democrats needing to take four of seven key races, seven that we're watching. And if they do, they'll have a 51 to 49 majority. And if you wish, I can tell you where those seven are really quickly.

Ciara Kelly (3:43)

Hit me up with it, Scott. I want to have everybody really well prepped. They know exactly what to listen out for across the next seven days.

Scott Lucas (3:50)

We'll have to start the night with Maine, which is very independent. It's not really a Republican or Democratic state. They can go various ways on economic, social issues.

So that's a Democrat sort of man of the people, Troy Jackson against a person running for six terms, Susan Collins, a Republican toss up. At the end of the day, when I hope all of y'all are asleep, we'll be all the way across in Alaska, which is a very close race indeed. Then there's two that we'll be watching in between really closely because they've gotten a lot of headlines.

In Michigan, where the Democrat, Abdul Asaeed is trying to become America's first Muslim Senator, he's running against a Trumpist election denier, Mike Rogers. In Texas, James Tallarico, in his mid-30s, young, vibrant grandson of a preacher, and I sympathize with that because I'm a preacher's son. He's running against the Trumpist, Ken Paxton, the former Attorney General, and Texas has not elected a Democrat in decades. But then I think the three that are going to decide it, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas, which has not had a Democratic Senator since 1932 The Republicans should have won these states, but two things mean that the Democrats can now possibly win them, and that is Donald Trump's tariffs, which have really hit farmers, and the rising cost of diesel fuel up 75 percent this year, which has also hit farmers.