Turkey 2016 coup attempt

Shirvan (0:00)

Turkish military personnel has been deployed in numerous strategic choke points in Istanbul and Ankara on the night of July 15th. Tanks and armored vehicles have been seen nearby the military headquarters in Ankara, and an explosion has taken place at the Turkish parliament building. In Istanbul, military blockades have been set up at the bridges of the Bosporus, and civilians trying to cross it have been fired upon. In both cities, gunfire and explosions have been reported, and witnesses have cited a fighter jet shooting down a helicopter. There are also reports of clashes between military units and police forces, and the coup leaders have imposed martial law. In defiance of this ongoing coup, Erdogan called upon citizens to come into the streets and protest. Much has happened in a very short span of time, and in this report, we will look at the ongoing coup in Turkey and why it's unlikely to succeed.

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The speed and tactic in which the military acted shows a high degree of organization, discipline and efficiency. As soldiers were deployed in avenues and bridges, they severed roads and logistics. It caught everyone by surprise. Civilians were told to return to their homes as a curview had been imposed, and following this, soldiers besieged the headquarters of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP for short, in Istanbul, and power was cut to several critical governmental agencies. Some media offices were taken over by the soldiers, such as the public broadcasting channel TRT.

In essence, the coup had all the classic tactics of a conspiracy. However, the element of surprise depends on timing. Erdogan, who has been last sighted in Istanbul's Atatürk airport, has called for protests against the military takeover. The call is working. Civilians and police forces are taking back strategic checkpoints and public squares in Ankara and Istanbul. At the moment, this countercoup is still ongoing and the outcome is uncertain. However, there are reports that the leaders of the coup have been identified. Details are still sketchy, but Akar, the chief of general staff of the Turkish Armed Forces, is confirmed to be held hostage at the military headquarters in Ankara. Furthermore, General Dündar of the First Army mentioned on live TV that the Turkish Army does not support the coup against the government of Erdogan. Meanwhile, the commander of the Third Army ordered the troops to return to their bases.

Basically, a large portion of the military still remains loyal to the president. These statements also indicate that this is not a genuine military coup, at least not in a traditional sense. Rather, the plot is orchestrated by a small but highly organized segment of the military, who are sympathizers of the powerful Gülen movement, led by Fatullah Gülen.

This obviously begs the question, who is Gülen and what does his organization stand for? Well, Gülen is a self-exiled scholar residing in the United States, and since the 1970s, he has led the Gülen movement, also known as the Hizmet. This religious fraternity is driven by ideology and finances. It has a global network of about 1000 private universities, of which the curriculum is based on a more tolerant and scientific form of Islam. Moreover, the Gülen movement has enormous influence in the media and commercial enterprises in Turkey, the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia.

Gülen followers are mostly highly educated and well connected in the commercial, governmental, military and judiciary systems throughout the region. Overall, the Hizmet and its schools are both praised as modernizers and criticized as heretics.

At first, when Erdogan and the AKP came to power in 2002, he was allied with the Gülen movement. However, over the years, the political differences between Gülen and Erdogan grew, and the two became opponents. Erdogan felt that the Gülen movement had become too powerful, meanwhile Gülen advocated against Turkish involvement in the Syrian civil war. Following this, the Gülen movement stimulated the 2013 corruption scandal in Turkey. Top AKP members and relatives of Erdogan were accused of embezzlement and illegal activities. Then, in 2014, Erdogan's administration hit back and targeted the sympathizers of the Gülen movement within the Turkish military, police, educational system and media. Since the 2014 and 2015 crackdown of Gülenists, the movement's influence has significantly decreased, but it has endured to this day.

What exactly motivated the planners is unknown. It's most likely that they are sympathizers of the Gülen movement, but acted on their own with the intention to subdue the AKP. However, bringing an end to the AKP by force will not work. In the last elections, nearly half of the votes went to the party. It's also noteworthy to mention that Turkey has a highly polarized society. Just as the AKP cannot rule on its own, so too the opposition cannot enforce rule on its own. At the moment, there are two things that are missing in this coup that could lead to its ultimate failure. First, amid the chaos, a large segment of the military still refuses to take part in the takeover, meaning the organizers do not have the numbers. Any successful coup needs unity of force. In Turkey, unity among the leadership of the military is absent. Second, Erdogan's successful call to protest against the military takeover shows that he has popular support on his side. If the coup leaders cannot convince the people for public support, then in the long run, the military plot cannot succeed.