Trump's Bluff Went Nowhere (Iran War Update) | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

**Jonathan Hackett** (0:00)
I think inertia is a good word to use to describe what we see happening right now, because if there isn't a change in policy, if it's the same policy just amplified or reduced, it's the inertia of the operation continues moving in the same kind of general direction, which is the hardening of Iran's regime, the weakening of US influence in the region, the growth of Saudi Arabia as a power regionally, the decline of Israel as a power in the region. And one thing on the horizon we haven't talked about is the growth of Turkey also in the region, because Turkey has always had the dream of turning to the Ottoman control over these places between today's Turkey all the way down to Yemen.

**dee takos** (0:38)
All right, guys, hey, welcome everybody to another episode of Eyes On Geopolitics. I'm here with Jack Murphy, Jonathan Hackett, and Mick Mulroy. A lot happening as usual throughout this past week. We had been striking Iran, that had stopped, and then there was talk more and more about a bigger hit. Potentially hit in like energy infrastructure. St. Con Commander General Bradley Cooper briefed President Trump about a bigger campaign that would roughly take about two weeks. I feel like we're living this war two weeks at a time, frankly.
Another interesting thing I saw from Axios that the Trump officials basically were giving, were saying how they were surprised about Iran being so aggressive in terms of the negotiations, which is like, I don't know how they could be shocked by that. They'd be getting pummeled for four months and they're still around.
As the week was leading on, you're hearing more and more about a bigger strike, bigger strike, or a bigger campaign, essentially, probably in conjunction with Israel. At least that was the talk.
Last night, basically, it was paused. I don't know if Trump put out a statement or a tweet or whatever saying that. Oh yeah, he did. It was ridiculous. You guys can go ahead and read it. I'm not going to read it for you. It was one of Trump's regular ridiculous tweets that he writes. A lot of stuff happening in the background too that I was reading about, like Saudi Arabia, MBS called up Trump to, I guess, have Trump exercise restraint and stuff like that because Iran had warned and told everybody supposedly too that they hit up Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, that if they helped us in any way with this campaign or this bombing, that they would be in line for some sort of retaliation. So, ended up last night late, not late, even late last night, it's probably like 9 p.m. Eastern, Trump releases that tweet, says it's not going to happen and that there's a possible deal on the table. This is shit we've heard before many, many times. I don't know what the fuck's going to happen, you guys tell me. It's beyond frustrating to live this over and over and over again. It's a groundhog's day. So, I'd love to know what you guys are tracking with this. Mick, you go first.

**Mick Mulroy** (3:13)
So I was, I mean, all week, as in every week, talking about this on ABC, talking about trying to isolate the regime economically, etc., sanctions, secondary sanctions. And then I see Brother Jonathan talking to Brother Jack about how the shit isn't going to work. I was like, damn it. And then maybe, I don't know if you guys, I mean, obviously, those two know what I'm talking about. But maybe it's a good thing that Jonathan kind of does a summary of that again.
I'm still going to advocate that we have to do something. So, but I think it's important the points that he had in that, of how the regime is kind of figuring out their way around that and essentially, they still become rich, that it only really impacts the people. So I think we need to take that into consideration. But I'll leave that for Jonathan to explain even more. But so what did we see this week? We're in a situation right now where we obviously can't leave it at the current state or we have failed. I always look at this as we look at it as a partisan thing.
So I want to figure out a way out of this that is successful for the United States, which I think also translates as successful for the region and the world.
So we can't leave it like this. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. That's unacceptable. They are likely going to go for a nuclear weapon now, so we haven't ensured that they will never get a nuclear weapon. We probably have in part inspired them to.