Trump scraps last two election rallies ahead of midterms

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The Hard Shoulder, with Ciara Kelly and Shane Colman.

Greg Swenson (0:49)

On Newstalk, with Ciara Kelly.

Shane Colman (0:53)

Now with four days to go before the US midterm elections, Democrats are leading in national polls with both parties making their final push for votes. Meanwhile, a legal dispute threatens to delay the Senate result in Alaska. Donald Trump cancelling two weekend rallies in favour of campaigning by phone. We're joined by Greg Swenson of Republicans Overseas. Greg thanks indeed for talking to us.

Do you have a feeling that in the last day or so, things might be moving back a little bit towards Republicans?

Greg Swenson (1:26)

Yes, I think the key word is a little bit.

It's surely not going to be a red wave or a great day for Republicans, but I think it will be better than it's spelt in the last few weeks or few months, and we're getting a little momentum at the end. Maybe that's the president's campaigning, maybe that's the scandal in Alaska that I think is going to help. I think there's this sort of common sense versus crazy advantage that the Republicans have, and that could help us in Texas and Maine and surely in Michigan.

Shane Colman (2:06)

Okay, let's look at some of the races, well, actually the House. Can we assume that the House is going to go Democrats? Would you concede that at this stage?

Greg Swenson (2:15)

Yeah, I mean, even if the Republicans won every toss-up, the Democrats would still have the majority, they still have 220 or so seats. So, the real issue is, is it a 10 pickup or is it a 25 pickup?

Shane Colman (2:29)

Okay.

Greg Swenson (2:30)

That's the mystery.

Shane Colman (2:31)

Okay, so the House is going to be Democrat. Let's talk about the Senate race. I mean, a lot of focus on maybe seven or eight of those races, Michigan, Maine, Georgia, Texas, Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, North Carolina, New Hampshire. Which one of those do you think the Republicans will actually hold on to?

Greg Swenson (2:55)

I think, I mean, I've sort of assumed there's five toss ups. I've already conceded Georgia and North Carolina to the Democrats. But, you know, the Democrats would have to win three of the five remaining toss ups in order to have a majority. And that's a pretty tall order, even three of those are.

Shane Colman (3:12)

Give us those toss ups. Give us your five toss ups, Greg.

Greg Swenson (3:14)

Yeah, so it's Alaska, Ohio, Michigan, Maine and Texas.

Shane Colman (3:23)

Okay.

Greg Swenson (3:24)

And so, you know, and I think, given the radical candidates in Maine, Texas and Michigan, there's a good chance the Republicans can keep their seats. Whereas, you know, I think Ohio might be difficult.

But I do think that, you know, sort of that the common sense versus crazy will help us in those three states, Maine, Texas and Michigan.

Shane Colman (3:47)

Tell us about Alaska. For those who aren't aware, what is the controversy that you referred to earlier?

Greg Swenson (3:53)

Yeah. Well, first of all, they have what's called ranked choice voting, where you score, you know, your first choice and your second choice, your third choice, and then, you know, candidates are eliminated. But the controversy is that the Democrats recruited and it turns out that the Democrat candidate knew about it, and then the National Party was behind it and funding it. They recruited a candidate with the same name as the Republican Senator, the incumbent Republican Senator, whose name is Dan Sullivan. So they found a guy named Dan Sullivan and registered him and came up with a fraudulent campaign, not much of a campaign, but it's just really designed because he's not campaigning, it's designed to confuse people on the ballot. So there's two Dan Sullivans on the ballot. Now, if that was just some funny person that was trying to run a campaign or just get himself on the ballot, okay, that's fine. But this was actually the Democratic machine was behind it. And that's going to be, I think is really going to hurt the Democrat in the race.