This is What Losing Looks Like (Iran War Update) | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

**dee takos** (0:00)
Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes On Geopolitics. I'm here today with Jonathan Hackett and Andy Milburn. Mick Mulroy possibly will likely be joining us in a little bit. You guys are seeing the same stuff I'm seeing. Seas Fire seems to have completely collapsed. We're on like day eight of American strikes, you know, on whether it's Iranian shipping or Iranian, you know, islands, different targets. Iran has responded with shooting cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and drones at all of our bases in the region, which means shooting missiles against all of their neighbors. Two service members died in Jordan from one of the attacks. One is missing. So, you know, this is like a real this, you know, for people who think this is, you know, obviously this is so far away, but this is like real people's lives that are being lost on the Iranian side as well. Like, let's be frank, right? I'm sure we're not a hundred percent accurate where we're shooting. So, yeah, some bits, like the one quote that really like, like stuck to my craw a little bit was Caitlin Collins of CNN, who I think is probably one of the better White House reporters. Ask Trump, what did she ask Trump? What the hell did I have? But hold on, this is a pretty glaring fucking quote, frankly. She asked, you know, the United States is bombing Iran again. You've been bombing Iran for months now. Is this just a new normal for the American people? Which I feel like is a completely fair fucking question. And the president replied, we were in Vietnam for 19 years. We're here for four months. So I think we've done a lot.
That kind of shit coming from the president is one of the age. I know obviously it's Trump. I know we're desensitized to the crazy shit he says.
But he's talking about actual fucking war. And the way he's just so blase about it, to me frankly is offensive. And I'm being as generous as I can be because I have other words that I could totally use.
Yeah, it's a fucking joke, frankly, that this guy is the president and he's leading us into this fucking abyss. The escalation ladder seems to be getting longer and longer every day. It doesn't seem to be at no end in sight. So yeah, what are you guys tracking?
Milburn, I want you to go first. I missed you.

**Andy Milburn** (2:47)
I missed you too, D. Thank you. So, you know, I think, not I think, you know, we've talked about the strategy or lack thereof before in this program. It isn't simply us throwing rocks.
You know, in fact, I know at least a couple of us were involved in planning for war with Iran before. So, and I'm wondering why some of the assumptions and some of the risks identified in almost a decade of planning have been thrown out of the window, namely the anticipation that Iran would close the Straits of Hormuz, but also understanding the limits of an air campaign. And through no one's fault, it's just very difficult to track down the assets. Trying to track down rocket launchers, and now small boats, drone, places where drones are being stored. Specifically, to leap ahead, what has changed about this phase of the war? To answer the question that's been asked the administration, what do you hope to gain out of these strikes? The list of targets are specifically focused on Iranian assets that could interfere with shipping and the Strait of Hormuz, at least until last night. Right? Those were specifically radar sites, acquisition radar in the southern part of the country, and again, missile launchers, places where intelligence was suggesting the Iranians were storing drones. Although I haven't seen this specifically, I assume also small boats, but all those assets are easy to move around and hide and decoy and disperse, and especially in a country like Iran. The longer the war goes on, the easier it is for them to disperse the remaining assets. So the strike against Jordan last night, the strikes against Kuwait are not a surprise. What is perhaps surprising in this phase, and Jon can perhaps jump in to add some more amplification on this, is the increased accuracy of Iranian missiles, right?
That is, I understand, mostly attributed to the fact that the Chinese are providing a navigation system that's no longer at GPS. Jon, do you remember the term in its B, it's Baidu-3 or something? It's the frequency-hopping-

**Jonathan Hackett** (5:49)
Talking about the GPS alternative.

**Andy Milburn** (5:51)
Yes, the Chinese frequency-hopping version of the GPS. I know I should probably Google that. We have various student members of our audience who will be able to jump in.