The year ahead, according to AI, and humans

SPEAKER_1 (0:01)

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Ethan Wu (0:30)

Hey, one quick note. This show you're about to hear was recorded in mid-December.

Pushkin. Hey, listeners, as we move into the new year, we thought it would be helpful to take a look at what the best minds on Wall Street are saying about what they expect in 2024 in the world of finance and the world of markets, and also to ask the question, are the best minds on Wall Street any better or any worse than Chad GPT? This is Unhedged, the Markets and Finance show from the Financial Times and Pushkin. I am financial reporter Ethan Wu here in the New York studio, joined by definitely not Chad GPT, Robert Armstrong.

Robert Armstrong (1:14)

It is nice to be here, gibberish.

Ethan Wu (1:20)

And from London, the base text on which all chat bots are trained, Katie Martin in London.

Katie Martin (1:27)

I am in charge of Chad GPT, apparently.

Ethan Wu (1:31)

We have our two foremost AI experts today on the podcast to talk about 2024 in markets and finance. You know, traditionally on Wall Street, the big researchers at the banks and the Southside Research Outlets published their investment outlooks for the year to come. They've done so again for 2024 And we were inspired by our colleague Bryce Elder over at FT Alphaville, who came up with an amazing quiz that you can take right now on ft.com. We'll have the link in the show notes.

Yearhead Investment Outlook or ChatGPT. So what Bryce did is he went through a bunch of Wall Street investment outlooks and pulled quotes from them and also used ChatGPT to generate some, let's call it comparable text from the chat bot. And he put them in a quiz format. So we'll get a passage and we have to guess who wrote that. ChatGPT are one of the big Wall Street Southside shops.

Katie and Rob, do you think before we start that you'll be able to tell the difference?

Robert Armstrong (2:24)

I'm going to nail everyone.

Ethan Wu (2:26)

Everyone?

Robert Armstrong (2:27)

Katie's laughing at me already.

Katie Martin (2:30)

I reckon I can do this.

Ethan Wu (2:32)

Okay. Well, I'm going to give you both five of them and we'll have you pre-register your guesses. And we'll see, ChatGPT or Wall Street Analyst. Let's begin.

Absent Rapid Fed easing, we expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year with softening consumer trends at a time when investor positioning and sentiment have mostly reversed. Equities are now richly valued with volatility near the historical low, while geopolitical and political risks remain elevated. Who wrote that Robin, Katie, ChatGPT or JP Morgan?

Robert Armstrong (3:05)

JP Morgan.

Katie Martin (3:06)

I'm saying JP. 100%.

Ethan Wu (3:08)

All right. Let's see. JP Morgan. You both are correct. That is from JP Morgan's Global Equity Strategy 2024 Outlook.

Off to a great start. Right on.

Katie Martin (3:17)

Choke one up for the humans.

Ethan Wu (3:19)

This passage is really just like a bunch of investment-adjacent words kind of put into a string. Okay. Next question.

Navigating a challenging macro backdrop with high valuations and geopolitical risks demands a cautious and strategic approach, assessing risk tolerance, diversifying portfolios, focusing on quality investments and staying informed. Are key strategies for investors looking to navigate these uncertain market conditions?

Robert Armstrong (3:46)

That is scandalously free of content. I mean, that is just amazing.

Doesn't actually rule out that it was written by a human being, but makes me slightly suspect that, I mean, writing something that empty headed is the kind of thing ChatGPT is really good at. So I'm inclined to go GPT, but I'd like to consult with my advisor here, Katie, what do you think?

Katie Martin (4:10)

I am going to say ChatGPT because if I'm not mistaken, Deutsche have got a 5,100 target on the S&P for 2024

Robert Armstrong (4:21)

So you actually have information.

Ethan Wu (4:23)

Katie is actually informed about things.

Robert Armstrong (4:26)

Okay, so we're going with GPT here, boss.

Ethan Wu (4:29)

Chat GPT it is.

Robert Armstrong (4:30)

Ding ding ding ding.

Ethan Wu (4:32)

We're doing good. Two for two. That's really not bad.

Katie Martin (4:35)