The Rundown 6/23/26: The AI Hype Machine, Canada’s Capital Gap, and the Return of Hard Tech

**John Ruffolo** (0:00)
That moment there really said to me the same thing that Satya said, do not build your business so that somebody will come calling, particularly where they start to become monopolistic.

**Matt Cohen** (0:15)
Welcome back everyone to another electrifying episode of Tank Talks. I'm your host, Matt Cohen, and joining me as always is the one and only John Ruffolo. Get ready as we dive headfirst into the hottest news and most exciting headlines at the intersection of business, innovation and politics.
John and I have known each other for quite some time, and during COVID, we were pretty bored, and I started a podcast called Tank Talks, and I duped John into showing up once in a while to talk about things going on, and ecosystem, and politics, and business, and startups, and then sure enough, he just kept showing up, and never knowing the questions, never expecting anything in return, just kept showing up, and still doesn't know the questions I'm about to ask him today, which makes us really exciting for me. But maybe John, just so our audience understands what you're up to, your quick background, and how you come into knowing so much about everything.

**John Ruffolo** (1:06)
Oh yeah. Well, first of all, it's a pleasure to be here. When you first had asked me, I do remember you saying, would you mind being my first guest? And I was like, oh, of course, it'll do a favor for you. And then the next week is like, hey, you know what, that went so well the first time, you might just do it one more time.
And then I started to see a series of e-mails going, hey dude, like you're asking me every single week.

**Matt Cohen** (1:32)
So I actually just didn't even ask him anymore. I just went right to his assistant and just inserted into his calendar.

**John Ruffolo** (1:37)
Yeah, exactly. So no, it's pleasure to be here. As some of you may know, I've just been in the innovation space really for a very long time, going back to, on a full time basis, back to 1992, which aside from making me very old, I get to see and I have seen all of the hills and the valleys and the repetitive themes that happen all the time. And I love it when somebody tells me this time it's different. And I like, oh, yeah, sure it is. And it never ever is. But it is exciting and interesting. And one of the things that, you know, I'm most pleased about is I believed back then that innovation was going to be the path for the future of this country. I believe that entrepreneurship was really needed to be at the top of the apex. So still, you know, 20 or 30, but 36 years later, it's, you know, you're still seeing the fruition. And I see you all here. And it's exciting to see that you folks are really the future of this country. So thank you.

**Matt Cohen** (2:48)
Well, let's double click on This Time is Different, because I think this time is different. I know you and I argue about this, but this time it really feels different. This week, we just saw the largest IPO of all time after 20 years going public, staying private and then going public. Already up, you know, I think it's like 80% since the IPO. It's trading around $215, $2.8 trillion market cap. The headlines are everywhere. First off, are you surprised at where it's trading?

**John Ruffolo** (3:16)
No, because people are generally stupid as investors.
And these are the hype machines. I think the Starlink business is a great business.

**Matt Cohen** (3:27)
$20 billion revenue, 60% of revenues.

**John Ruffolo** (3:29)
Yeah, you know, now you start to look at absolute fundamentals and fundamentals do show up over the course of time. Business is valued on its discounted cash flows.
No one factors in CapEx. In fact, the Starlink CapEx is not particularly egregious.

**Matt Cohen** (3:47)
No, not at all. It supports everything else.

**John Ruffolo** (3:49)
It's the other stuff that is absolutely egregious and the math doesn't math. And you know, you get these hype bubbles and over time, you know, these bubbles always burst. The question really is, is, and it was really on a post COVID basis, the world was awash in liquidity. It's no longer awash in liquidity. One of the things that I had mentioned to you and you're starting to see it, you know, we got three massive IPOs coming out. It's not like cash just magically appears. It has to come from someplace. And either people are going to move from bonds, which I'm not sure, that's not what you're really hearing because people are also having anxiety about where interest rates and inflation are. They're moving it from other assets that are largely technology related assets.