The Metric That Predicted Bitcoin’s Last Bottom Is Back w/ Julio Moreno

**Julio Moreno** (0:00)
So yeah, we should pick or look for demand starting to contract slower, and then eventually we'll get to growing again.

**John Gill** (0:10)
Bitcoin has retested the lows from February, but is the bottom of the bear market in, or are we going to go even lower from here? Hello and welcome to The Milk Road Show, the podcast that knows that if the bulls are ever going to come back, someone besides Michael Saylor is going to have to buy some Bitcoin. I'm your host, John Gill, and today is Tuesday, June 23rd. Today, we are joined by Julio Moreno. Julio is the head of research at CryptoQuant, where he leads data-driven on-chain analysis and institutional-grade research on Bitcoin and digital assets. Julio has over 15 years of experience in market intelligence, and he is a longtime friend of The Milk Road Show. I'm really happy to have him back. I hope you all are too. Julio is going to share a lot of alpha with all of us today, so if that sounds good to you, make sure you like and subscribe. Share this episode with somebody who's going to enjoy it. Today's episode is brought to you by Bitget Stocks 2 with real liquidity and real dividends and Nexo Earn Interest Borrow and Trade Crypto. And without further ado, welcome back to The Milk Road Show, Julio. How are you, sir?

**Julio Moreno** (1:05)
Hello, John. I'm good. Thank you. Thank you for having me back.

**John Gill** (1:09)
I'm really glad to have you back. Julio, before we get into the charts, because I know you've got a lot of slides prepared for us today to kind of walk us through what you're seeing here. I think a lot of people are wondering, have we bottomed or are we going lower? And I've heard some wild calls like down to the 30s. I've heard, there's one analyst from Bloomberg is calling for 10K.
So there's a lot of wild predictions on these things. Why do you think after this much time in the markets and this much price history, we still have such a wide variation of opinions on things like has Bitcoin bottomed in this cycle? And why are we getting such a broad spectrum of predictions here?

**Julio Moreno** (1:44)
I mean, well, maybe everyone has a different model or a different weight of value in Bitcoin.
It could be from the technical side. I've seen all those charts also. Mostly it's the technical side when people say, if it pierces this support, it will go to 10K, right? That's the wildest things that I've seen regarding the price forecast or predictions.
It could be different ways to model that. I myself do it more from the on-chain data perspective. I think it's the one that it has given us more accurate bottoms over the years, bottoms that repeat themselves looking at some specific metrics that we will take a look actually in the slides. So yeah, it's about your framework or your model or where you're coming from. When analyzing Bitcoin, it is technical or macro or on-chain. So that's why it varies a lot.

**SPEAKER_3** (2:59)
Guys, listen, we are at a very crucial point in time right now. AI stocks have ripped, they're going to keep ripping. Our analysts on the AI side are up literally 100 percent or more on quite a few calls.
Crypto is about to boom again, at least it feels that way. If you want all the insight on what we're buying, what our analysts are doing, what's on their watch list, all of that is in Milk Road Pro, so join at the link below.

**John Gill** (3:24)
There are a lot of different ways to model this, but you try to do on-chain analysis because you think that's been the most reliable historically.
Before we get into the charts, I want to ask a little bit about the path that we took to get here because Bitcoin, not too long ago, was up around $80K and it got rejected and it came down to, I think, $59K, $60K, and we're right now around $62K, so pretty near the local lows here. What is that rejection off of $82K signal to you? Is that something you were expecting? Were you hoping that we would break through resistance and continue, rejoin the bull run? Or just how did you interpret that breakdown, that rejection?

**Julio Moreno** (4:01)
Yeah, actually, the previous time that I was here with you guys in The Milk Road Show, I was talking with LG, and actually, the slides where the title was, this was like a rally, a bear market rally. I was expecting we'd calm down again, and people can look into that. So I'm not just talking as if I knew the future, but it was what on-chain data was actually telling us. A little bit of technical, because when we hit $80K, it was really, there was a lot of resistance there from the technical side, but also from the on-chain side. There was a lot of short-term profits that were unrealized. So we were on a risk of traders realizing those profits, because we had actually a really long rally there from the 60s to 80s. So there was a lot of unrealized profits to be made. And so all that converged for me to expect that we rejected that at those levels.