The Housing Market Is Completely F*d - Stay Away From These States! | Reventure Consulting

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

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Nick Gerli (0:30)

The weakness I see in the different corners of the housing market makes me think the underlying economy maybe is not as healthy as the stock market would suggest.

SPEAKER_3 (0:37)

New home construction, that's down, while the cost of those homes and most everything else these days is up.

Graham Stephan (0:43)

What does this tell you about the greater US economy?

Nick Gerli (0:46)

Existing home sales are around four million. That's about what they were in 2008, 2009 during the worst financial crash in 80 years.

SPEAKER_3 (0:55)

The gap between what home buyers need to earn and what they actually make has never been wider.

Graham Stephan (1:01)

What out of everything that you've seen in the past three months is the most surprising thing?

Nick Gerli (1:04)

Someone bought a house for 500, it's now 400 We were told that that's not possible.

Graham Stephan (1:10)

Who should buy a house and who should not?

Nick Gerli (1:13)

So for the vast majority of people in the US, be very careful if you're buying.

Jack Selby (1:18)

Property is fine except it's pretty done expensive by historical standards.

Nick Gerli (1:23)

I don't think we're going to see entire markets go down 65 percent. I think we'll see entire markets go down.

Graham Stephan (1:30)

That would be insane.

Jack Selby (1:31)

Yeah.

Graham Stephan (1:35)

Nick, thank you so much for coming on The Iced Coffee Hour.

Nick Gerli (1:38)

Great being here, Graham.

Graham Stephan (1:39)

So I really enjoy your videos. I think you make some really insightful observations about the real estate market, the economy. I watch almost all of your content and I have to say I really enjoy it. I am curious, though, for everyone watching, why should they listen to you?

Nick Gerli (1:53)

Because we bring the data on the US housing market. If you're looking to buy a house or sell a house, you need to understand the data on where prices are heading. And we have a very bifurcated market right now, where some areas are actually crashing and going down 15, 20, 25 percent. We have other areas are still going up. So if you're a homebuyer or seller or investor, you need to understand that data before you make the biggest financial decision of your life and myself and my channel, Reventure, it's pretty much the only source widely available for real data.

Graham Stephan (2:23)

Why are you one of the only people providing this data? Is this data other people are ignoring? Is it shielded for some reason? Explain that.

Nick Gerli (2:29)

Yeah, the data is actually not shielded. It's widely available. Companies like Zillow and realtor.com provide home price data down to the zip code, inventory and days on market down to the zip code. But I think a lot of people in real estate don't have an interest in showing the truth.

I call it the real estate mafia. It's maybe a cabal of realtors and people who own real estate who want to create this perception that values are going to go up forever, and they want to FOMO people into buying a house even if it's not totally the right decision. I think there isn't really the interest in the mainstream real estate industry of providing this data to people. Five or six years ago, I learned where all this data was. I found it, I made it available, and then combined it to produce forecasts on where prices are going. That's essentially changing the game, in my opinion, for the housing market.

Graham Stephan (3:17)

Do you have a background in this?

Nick Gerli (3:19)

Yes.

I have an economics degree from Siena College in the London School of Economics, and then I worked my first eight years in commercial real estate as an underwriter for a private equity fund that did mortgages on apartment buildings, offices around the US. I got my start traveling all around the US, funding deals in places like Las Vegas, Phoenix and Houston and Florida and Atlanta. I started learning the lay of the land of the US real estate market in 2010s. After I left that job, I started switching my focus to the residential housing market, and found some data on the residential housing market that was widely available and started putting these models together.