The Grant Williams Podcast Ep. 122 - Simon Hunt

**Grant Williams** (0:10)
Before we get going, here's the bit where I remind you that nothing we discuss should be considered as investment advice. This conversation is for informational and hopefully entertainment purposes only. So, while we hope you find it both informative and entertaining, please do your own research or speak to a financial advisor before putting a dime of your money into these crazy markets.
You're about to listen to a special preview edition of The Grant Williams Podcast, featuring my friend Simon Hunt of Simon Hunt Strategic Services. Simon's based in Dubai, the Middle East, and is someone that focuses on the copper market, and also a lot of the geopolitical stuff going on in the Middle East. And so this seemed like a perfectly sensible time to try and have a conversation with him and get his updated thoughts on the region. What follows, I found incredibly interesting, and I'm sure for a lot of people, incredibly triggering. So I look forward to hearing the response to a lot of what Simon has to say. Every episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, including The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, This Week In Doom, Shifts Happen, Kaos Theory and The Hundred Year Pivot are available to Copper and Silver Tier subscribers at my website, grantwilliams.com. Copper Tier subscribers get access to all the podcasts, while members of The Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly new set of Things That Make You Go Hmmm. So if you enjoy what you hear on the show and you'd like more high quality content like it, please make your way over to grantwilliams.com and join our exciting community today. Now on with the show.
Well, Simon, my friend, it's so good to see you. Nobody listening to this will realise the complications we've had trying to get this conversation together. All of them down to me, I hasten to add. So thanks for your patience.

**Simon Hunt** (2:01)
I'm 10 minutes late.

**Grant Williams** (2:03)
Well, you know what? That's a mere trifle, a mere trifle. Well, it's great to see you. You're looking very, very well. There's so much to talk about as always, but I want to kick off if I can.
You're in Dubai. You've been there for, what, a couple of years now.

**Simon Hunt** (2:14)
Five years. Is it five years?

**Grant Williams** (2:16)
Goodness me.
That's extraordinary. Wow. Okay. Well, five years it is. So before we get into what's going on in the world, if you can, just give us a sense of what's happening in Dubai, just in terms of a place to live, because there's all kinds of stuff floating around on social media, you know, all the Ritz-Carlton's been shut down, it's going bankrupt and all this kind of stuff. But just give us a sense of the changes to living in Dubai since the war with Iran started.

**Simon Hunt** (2:45)
Well, before the war started, Dubai was a humming, thriving city. A lot of money was coming in, a lot of what I called flash money. The war started and there was a complete exodus.
And now it's a ghost city. There's little traffic on the roads. The government is trying to put the best face on it. Schools are back, so there's a bit more traffic early morning and late afternoon.
But rather than talking about specific hotels, talking to a friend of mine who brands about 90 hotels in Dubai, I asked us the other evening, what's the average occupancy between 5 and 20 percent? Another view on how bad things are. I have a regular taxi driver. I asked him, what's your average daily take now? He said between 200 and 300 dirhams. And at that level, he makes no money. His normal take would have averaged between 900 and 1200
There are much bigger repercussions. There are, how could I call it, informed rumors that Dubai has actually canceled all its contractors. Whatever they may be, that cash flow is probably negative, that they have asked Abu Dhabi for some funding. And in turn, which is in the press, Abu Dhabi has gone to Washington. So if things are like this here, they're no better across the Gulf.
So the bottom line is, instead of Gulf states financing America, etc., etc., it's the other way around. Capital is going to be flowing instead of out in order to prop up the economies.
Now, of course, if the war stops tomorrow, then within six months, you can see things starting to turn around. But that's a different question that we can get into. From a personal point of view, in a way, quite funny, as you know, I play tennis three to four times a week. Before the ceasefire, we did have moments between eight and nine in the morning when warnings came out, get inside, missiles are on the way, and Ryan and I looked at each other and just carried on playing tennis.