The Fed is LYING to You Again!

**SPEAKER_1** (0:00)
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**Michael Zuber** (0:58)
Alrighty, folks, we are truly lucky and fortunate on this channel. We get to talk to somebody for about 30 minutes every week who is a 10, now 11-year veteran on Wall Street. He works with the top 1% of the 1%.
So for him to give us a half hour is a true blessing. What we're gonna talk about today is we're gonna get his opinions, obviously, on Kevin Warsh's surprise talk on Friday. We will talk about what could be market moving this week. I'm gonna shock him with something, so we're gonna keep that one in the chamber We'll let. that happen at Point 3 And then finally, we're going to talk about my gripe with OpenAI and the fact that I think they are going to zero. We're going to do all of this with Taylor from Life Goal Investments. How are you doing, buddy?

**Taylor** (1:37)
Thanks for the kind words. I'm excited. You always come with hot topics, and let's dig right into it. We'll see where we disagree, where we agree, and roll.

**Michael Zuber** (1:45)
There you go. So let's talk about Kevin Warsh.
I listen to his speech three times, once live while driving, and then a couple of times over the weekend, because I'm just that kind of geek. But I'm curious, without leading the witness, what was your takeaway from Friday?

**Taylor** (2:00)
Yeah, I actually thought that he created clarity in a couple of categories where I didn't know that he had the ability to create clarity, or not ability, I'm joking there, but desire to create clarity.

**SPEAKER_1** (2:11)
Yeah, desire. Yeah.

**Taylor** (2:13)
The two biggies were one, he just reiterated the 2% target. I don't think that was ever really in question. It was never in question, or Powell, I mean, whether they act like it's...

**Michael Zuber** (2:26)
Oh, you hit mute, buddy.
There you go. Okay, I'll touch the keyboard.

**Taylor** (2:36)
Didn't touch anything.

**Michael Zuber** (2:37)
Okay. All right.

**Taylor** (2:38)
So what was odd, or what was going on there? So the two things that I thought he created clarity for, which was not out there before, was he reiterated the 2% target.

**SPEAKER_4** (2:49)
Yeah, firm and fixed was his language.

**Taylor** (2:51)
Yep.
And I think that that was something that, obviously, Powell had reiterated 19 times, too. It did nothing to actually get us there. So we'll see if anything changes, and Warsh actually does something to get us there, because they can say it, but they're not acting that way. And he reiterated 65 straight months above that target. So those are a couple of things. But really, I think the big one was, and we talked at Nausneum about this in the past, is we don't even know what he's looking at as far as inflation. And I think it became resoundingly clear that he's just continuing the PCE drumbeat that we heard during the last administration as well, or Jerome Powell as well. So those are the two big takeaways. And I think that the market did say, and took a little breath of, man, the angst came out of the room a little bit. It wasn't the market reacted towards it, you know, great and in a good manner, actually sold off just marginally based on it because it implied higher rates coming. But, you know, we'll see it. It was something that we now understand what it is they're looking at, I think.

**Michael Zuber** (3:52)
Yeah, I think I thought that was important, right? I only had one request going into the meeting, and that was he would define what inflation is. And I think he did that in spade. He's basically like, okay, basically, I think what he did is I created some confusion. So let's let's clean this up. You know, it's it's PCE, 2% firm and fixed.