The Escalation Trap: Is America's Strategy in Iran Backfiring?

Robert Pape (0:00)

This is a very conflict-prone world, so a lot of different actors, a lot of power vacuums are going to emerge, and in power vacuums, you get a lot of escalation. It's not just the 20 million barrels coming out of Hormuz. Now we have another 5% of the world's oil, and this is causing a shock, okay? This is exactly what to expect with Iran's strategy, the consequences, and I'm sorry to say, it could well get worse before it gets better.

Nate Hagens (0:32)

You're listening to The Great Simplification. I'm Nate Hagens. On this show, we describe how energy, the economy, the environment, and human behavior all fit together, and what it might mean for our future. By sharing insights from global thinkers, we hope to inform and inspire more humans to play emergent roles in the coming Great Simplification.

Today, I'm joined by geopolitical analyst Robert Pape for a deep dive on the unfolding phase shift we are now witnessing in terms of military tactics, strategy, and regional control in the Middle East, as well as the decline of the United States as a global superpower in coming decades and beyond. Robert A. Pape is Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, specializing in International Security Affairs. His publications include Bombing to Win Airpower and Coercion in War, and Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work. Additionally, Robert is the Director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. His current work focuses on how force is used to achieve political objectives, how escalation unfolds, and how strategies of restraint can succeed or fail in international and American political violence.

In this Spitfire conversation, Robert gives us an update on the Iran War. As a result of the recent Ansar-Allah attack on the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia, he explains why this is another signal that the conflict is more likely to keep escalating and worsen rather than resolve itself anytime soon. Taking a step further, Robert connects the dots that point toward a larger decline for America's militaristic, diplomatic, and financial power in the world, and what that might mean for the era of globalization and stability that many of us have taken for granted over the last many decades. This was a fast-moving conversation that personally, since I have connected many of these dots, left me with a pit in my stomach about the current state of the world and the near-term future and the work that my team at TGS and ISOF are trying to do. That said, Robert's analysis was also illuminating in terms of what we might expect as this war continues on. With that, please welcome Professor Robert Pape.

Professor Robert Pape, welcome to the podcast.

Robert Pape (3:23)

Thanks, Nate. Thanks for having me.

Nate Hagens (3:25)

This is our first conversation. I've been following your work this summer, and you are quite prolific in your research and takes on what's happening in the Middle East. Let me, before we get into questions, time stamp this conversation. It is Tuesday, September 15th, 2.3 in the afternoon.

Let me start with this. A few days ago, Ansar al-Aa attacked the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia. Now, broadly speaking, in the area, not just Hormuz, but the whole Middle Eastern region, what was 25 million barrels a day of exports to the world are down to around 13.5 million. The world is down from 100 million to 88-ish, and the difference is coming out of storage. What are your initial takes on how this new Ansar al-Aa Yemen altercation changes the trajectory of the conflict in the region?

Robert Pape (4:27)

Well, this was fully predictable. I've been talking about this on the escalation trap Substack for months.

In the middle of June, there's a June 15th post I like to direct people to, which is Iran and the era of maximum leverage. So I explain that this was before the MOU was signed. I explained that Iran is about to come into a period of maximum leverage. Its maximum leverage would start in the middle of July and it would grow. Then it would grow and likely you would see the opening of a second front. That would be the Red Sea front.

That would be an expansion also of its objectives. So even beyond what was being discussed then with the MOU, that was being passed around at the time, that they would escalate their demands even beyond the MOU, and that demand would be to evict American forces out of the region in a very complete way.

That is what you are witnessing unfold. I also explained that Iran would take the initiative, that we had been thinking of this war as American or Israeli initiative, which I think is quite true, absolutely true, until the summer, until this period of maximum leverage. And then in the period that I was explaining was coming, and is now here, this would unfold, and Iran would become more and more the initiator of a violence, not simply responding to violence, would become more and more seeking to expand its orbit of influence, not simply hold on for survival. And this is exactly what you are seeing. And in fact, what happened with the Houthis in this roughly 72-hour period, and it's really important to understand, was a spurt by the Houthis.