The Dollar Endgame Is Not What You Think | Peruvian Bull

**Roberto Rios** (0:01)
The US is the sole issuer of currency, and the rest of the world needs that currency. And so, because of that demand imbalance, the US has to decide whether they want to print more money, or if they want to not do that, and the global system starves for liquidity, and everything starts to seize up. That's an issue of a centralized issuer and a global demand. Bitcoin is a decentralized issued currency. Bitcoin doesn't suffer from this. If any country wants to earn Bitcoin, they can do it. And so that means that in the long run, not only is Bitcoin a better reserve currency, it's the perfect reserve currency. Again, you look at the numbers, you look at how Fed does QE, you look at the debt load, and you say, okay, they're going to print the money. There's no way out. Everything's going to get inflated away. We're going to see 5% inflation, then 10, then 20, then 50, then 100 And then, you know, within five years, the dollar will be dead.

**Danny Knowles** (0:48)
A harsh lesson that a lot of people might have to learn. Like, I think if we're moving into this sort of multipolar world, Bitcoin is the best money. Like, it just is. All right, let's get into it. Roberto, good to see you, man. We've been talking about making this show for a very long time, so it's good to have you here.

**Roberto Rios** (1:04)
Yeah, thanks for having me.

**Danny Knowles** (1:06)
So we're going to get into the dollar endgame. The thing that's always funny about this is, like, people have been talking about this for a long time, way before Bitcoiners. Gold bugs have been talking about this forever.
And then over time, like, with the 2007-8 financial crisis, like money printing, all this stuff happens, and the dollar just seems, like, stronger than ever. So, what is the Dollar Endgame, and is it actually coming?

**Roberto Rios** (1:31)
Well, I would say, you know, my idea of what the Dollar Endgame is also has evolved in the last, like, eight years setting macro, because I definitely started off in that same path that you, you know, initially mentioned, right? You listen to Peter Schiff, you listen to Mike Maloney, you listen to basically all of the dollar doomers in the hyperinflation camp, and they give you this story of, you know, unsustainable US fiscal deficits, insanely high debt-to-GDP ratios compounding into the future, right? Huge unfunded liabilities that are unsustainable, an overextended American empire and military state that is creating conflicts all around the world. And it makes you believe that the dollar, you know, is going to collapse tomorrow. And so you think, wow, gold, silver, you know, bullets, this is what I should be investing in, because the US is going to become a zombie wasteland. And the rest of the world is going to be fine, right? But as I've dived down into the macro rabbit hole over the last eight years, I've found that the story is much more complex than it initially seems, right? And that dollar doomerism, while it's correct on certain bases, like we could say an absolute basis against, you know, scarce assets, it's not true on a relative basis. And this is what, you know, Brent Johnson's pointed out with the dollar milkshake theory.
And that relative basis actually matters a lot, because when you think about like where capital flows in a modern digitized, globalized world, relative strength really does matter. If you're a Chinese investor, if you're a Japanese investor, if you're a German investor, if you're a UK investor, and your stock market goes up 5% a year, and the US is doing 12% a year compounded, well, over 20 years, that's more than double total capital growth, right? And so why would you even invest in your local stock market if the US has much better growth?
And so those capital flows, those investment flows, commodity flows will influence, obviously, the global economy but also the US economy and give us that, you could say, like a buoy, an artificial boost, which allows us to maintain this exorbitant privilege of the world-deserved currency. But yeah, we can get into it, but I think the Dollar Endgame is still obviously in play, but I think it's gonna play out much different than most people think.

**Danny Knowles** (3:53)
Yeah, I mean, it's funny that you say that like, if you're in another country, like the US stock market performs so much better, so you may as well just invest there. And I live in Australia and that 100% happens here. Like I don't think very many people are investing in like the Australian Stock Exchange. Instead, it's either like real estate or the US Stock Exchange. So that money does end up in the US. So how do you think this does play out then? Because like you mentioned Brent Johnson then, and I've had him on the show a couple of times. I think he's a really smart guy.