The Debt Crisis Bitcoiners Aren’t Ready For | Avik Roy

Avik Roy (0:02)

But the thing that a lot of people don't appreciate is that the Congressional Budget Office's predictions, these official government predictions, are wildly optimistic. And if you actually use more realistic assumptions of economic growth, of inflation, of our borrowing costs, things get very bad very quickly. We don't have a lot of time. If civilization collapses, if the financial system collapses, it's not gonna be fine. And it's especially not gonna be fine for Bitcoiners because, yes, it's gonna be fine since you have Bitcoin, you're gonna be somewhat protected, but the politicians are likely to go after you precisely because you're seen as a pot of money that they can then use to solve the problem. We have to give people the tools to have a censorship-resistant way to exchange US dollars for Bitcoin. And again, maybe the various things, the bullets that I just listed out, maybe that's not the right technological solution, but it is a technological problem.

Danny Knowles (1:00)

Let's just get into it for a... Well, we'll fight later. Okay. But, you were the first interview I ever did in person.

Avik Roy (1:06)

Yes, and it's a true point of pride for me. I'm just so...

It was cool that you did your first interview with me, and obviously, I got to know you when you were working for Peter, and so happy that you've kept the franchise going. I think it's super important for Bitcoin, this franchise of what Bitcoin did, and you've done a great job. Kudos to you. I mean, I'm a listener. I find the interviews to do very interesting, and you do a great job.

Danny Knowles (1:31)

Thank you. I appreciate that. And we're back here in Austin.

Avik Roy (1:34)

We are.

Danny Knowles (1:35)

I want to start off, because at least in the show we did, we didn't really talk about where you came from. And I think you've been in Bitcoin a long time.

And I don't think especially when you came into Bitcoin, you were a very stereotypical Bitcoiner, because you were in the... was it Biotech?

Avik Roy (1:50)

Yeah, Biotech, TradFi.

Danny Knowles (1:51)

And then you ran presidential campaigns for... was it Mitt Romney?

Avik Roy (1:55)

Mitt Romney, and then I was a healthcare policy advisor for Mitt. And then in the 2016 cycle I worked for, Rick Perry was then the governor of Texas, became the energy secretary. And then Marco Rubio, who was a senator from Florida, became secretary of state. So a couple of... three interesting people.

Danny Knowles (2:12)

So how does that person, who's very involved in biotech and politics, become a Bitcoiner?

Avik Roy (2:20)

Well, it's interesting. I mean, I would say a lot of the... there will be a lot of common themes with other Bitcoiners, just maybe from a different seat in the ecosystem.

I was a portfolio manager in 2008 during the financial crisis, and I had a friend who was going on and on about how Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns were going to go bankrupt. And he had been ranting to me about this for years. And I'm just like, whatever, they're going to get bailed out, nothing's going to happen. I guess I was half right, you know?

And so once Lehman and Bear did collapse, I started paying a lot more attention to this guy, because he'd been ranting about... He was an Austrian econ type, would go on about fractional reserve banking and all this stuff, gold. He was the one who first told me about the Bitcoin white paper. And I'm like, okay, I'm listening, I'm paying attention, I'm getting it now. I understand everything you're saying, and it's all making sense to me. But I was very busy as a biotech hedge fund manager, and biotech is very intense. These stocks go... You think Bitcoin is volatile. Biotech stocks can go from 100 to overnight if the clinical trial fails. So the volatility of Bitcoin was not scary to me at all. But it was all consuming. I was very dedicated to that work, and didn't have any time. In those days, it was hard to buy Bitcoin. You either had to mine it on your laptop.

Danny Knowles (3:43)

Well, when are we talking here?

Avik Roy (3:45)

We're talking in the 2008 to let's call it 2013-14 timeframe.

Danny Knowles (3:49)

So you've been in Bitcoin that long?

Avik Roy (3:50)

I followed it. I hadn't bought any yet. So basically, I was following it, but I hadn't bought it because it just seemed like I didn't have the bandwidth to figure out how to do it. I'm going to code a wallet, and I got to do all this stuff, and I have to figure out how to mine it, or I have to go to this Japanese exchange. It was like, what? I want to figure this out. I just don't have time. I'll figure out eventually. And then Mt. Gox blew up, and Bitcoin went from a record high of $1,200 to $300. And I thought, well, this is the moment.