The Data Says Bitcoin’s Bottom Is Already In | Mitchell Askew & John Haar

**Mitchell Askew** (0:02)
I don't think we'll have these blow-off tops anymore, but that goes hand in hand with, I don't think we're gonna get a 75% drawdown. Like, I would give myself like 95% confidence that the bottom is in, in terms of price. I do think we could stay at this range for another three to six months potentially, but I seriously doubt we get a 75% drop.

**John Haar** (0:24)
I track 55 high-flying AI-related stocks. When I look at that in the last month, most of them are in the red. Year-to-date, though, they're still in the black big time. So like, they're still up a lot. So if more start to pull back in Q4, and then at the same time, Bitcoin chart looks favorable for calendar reasons, and then Bitcoin starting to go from 65 to 70 to 80, I think that could cause the capital rotation back.
That's kind of my base case. Does it have to happen in Q4? Doesn't have to. Maybe it takes till Q1 or something, but that's what I think is going to happen.

**Danny Knowles** (1:00)
Mitchell and John, how are you doing, guys?

**Mitchell Askew** (1:02)
Doing good, man. Happy to be here.

**John Haar** (1:04)
Excellent.

**Danny Knowles** (1:05)
Good. It's the first time you've been on the show.

**John Haar** (1:06)
First time. First time, long time, as they say.

**Danny Knowles** (1:09)
I'm excited. I think three things have happened in the last few days that make me think the bottom might be in.
Satsuma, do you see what happened with them? They've sold all the Bitcoin. Yeah. See SmartWeb have started selling Bitcoin. BitMEX has closed down. These all feel like bottom signals. What do you reckon?

**Mitchell Askew** (1:28)
Yeah.
I think in terms of their impact on the Bitcoin price, it's going to be probably pretty negligible, right? They've got like 600 Bitcoin. But these are, like you said, are the things you would expect to see at a bottom. And it makes sense because they're trading at, I don't know the exact number, but pretty big discount to the actual value of their Bitcoin holdings. And I don't think they have any other business. So it's like, why not just sell the Bitcoin and give that capital to the shareholders?

**Danny Knowles** (1:53)
Yeah. I think it's a good thing for Bitcoin.
We need this capitulation, then we can move forward. We need to weed out the companies that aren't really strong enough to be here. I think it's good.

**Mitchell Askew** (2:04)
So by not strong enough, would you say that any public Bitcoin company, they need to have a core business, they need to have cash flow?

**Danny Knowles** (2:12)
I don't know if I'd go that far. I'm yet to see on that one. It depends. Do you think strategy has a core business?

**Mitchell Askew** (2:20)
I don't think selling STRC and giving yourself liabilities is a core business. They still have the legacy software business, so I would say yes.
Because people frame STRC out, this is a product, it's just taking on incremental liability. And I also think people overstate the actual potential of it. They frame it as this vehicle that's going to be the plumbing that brings capital from the bond market to Bitcoin. Do you guys know the actual market cap of all the preferred equities in the world? I have no idea.

**John Haar** (2:54)
Not big.

**Mitchell Askew** (2:55)
It's smaller than Bitcoin. It's like 1.2, 1.3 trillion. And so you can call STRC digital credit, but it is in this very narrow niche of preferred stock. So I think even if STRC gets back to $100 a share, and like it makes sense for them to sell more, there's a finite amount of capital they could actually pull into Bitcoin through that vehicle. And so I think the true rendition of like digital credit or Bitcoin backed bonds is going to look a lot different than what we see with STRC. So I don't really think it's like a core business or product per se.

**Danny Knowles** (3:30)
The reason I asked that question, like do you think they have a core business is like, obviously they have the software company, but it seems irrelevant to me at least.
I'm going to left curve it and say it seems irrelevant and they don't have like necessarily the core business. And I think they're going to be totally fine. I think Bitcoin will get them out of this hole they're in. I think I'm sure stretch will go back to par. I think maybe it's been a good wake up for the market to see what can happen. But I don't think strategy are in any kind of danger.