THE BEST HOUSING MARKET IN A DECADE!!!

SPEAKER_1 (0:00)

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Michael Zuber (0:30)

Alrighty, folks, as you know, I believe we are already in the best real estate or best housing market of the last decade. We have some very interesting, exciting, nerve-racking things happening this week that could actually make the housing market better. Now, of course, what do I mean by better? Well, again, I speak to a very small audience. For most people, home sellers, you are wrecked. Home sellers, according to one lender I spoke with, see blood in the streets. Some of them will just take their properties off the market. Others will realize that yesterday's pricing is not here, and they need to get ahead of the curve before winter sets in. If you are a flipper, good luck. You bought your projects 100 days ago, and the market has changed. Wholesalers, you are not buying deep enough. Now, buyers. This is the market for the buyers who want to do the work. This is the market for the investors who understand it might take 20, 30, or maybe, like me, 100 offers. But trust me, folks, less demand, more supply, and more motivated sellers mean there are deals of a lifetime everywhere. You just need to do the work. And now with the news of the week, it could get even better. Now, what am I talking about? Well, it has been reported over the weekend that the Houthis apparently have captured some islands and some shore, making the Red Sea passage of oil more restrictive, if not darn right dangerous. It's also been reported that the pipeline that Saudi Arabia used has been bombed and is now shut down.

So we could see oil once again begin its march, and my high of 125 is not out of question. So we could have oil headed higher. Next up, we have a Fed meeting, and I think the Fed meeting is really simple. I think the Fed meeting does one of two things. At a Fed meeting, you could get a pause.

I think it would be the most dangerous, destructive, chaotic, Fed pause on record. What do I mean? The bond vigilantes are already pissed. You've already seen the 10-year note explode through the high end of the range at 4.8, nearly touching 5%. I believe the high water mark currently is 4992 So a whisper shy of 5%.

If the bond vigilantes do not get their rate increase because Warsh spends some tail of supply and this and that and the other, the bond vigilantes are simply going to say, Warsh is a wet noodle. Warsh is not in charge. In fact, the only person in charge of the Fed is Mr. President Donald Trump. And the bond vigilantes will not like that, and you will see the 10-year note shoot higher and higher and higher. In fact, we need a rate increase, even if you disagree with the logic. If Kevin Warsh does not raise rates, when the odds of a rate increase are 90 percent. Now, again, this is a new administration, and we'll see what happens. But historically speaking, historically speaking, any time and every time the market has priced in a rate increase above 60 percent, the Fed is delivered. Every time, you can go back throughout history. Every time the market expected a Fed rate increase above 60 percent odds, they have delivered. And as of right now, as of Friday, the odds were 90 percent. And just in case you're bad at math, 90 is bigger than 60 So again, the market is set up. If they do not get it, they will not be happy. So on Friday, we had a lot of Wall Street change their opinions about September. More importantly, folks, this is not seen as a one and done. Right? This is not a, hey, let's tinker with a 25 basis points or quarter point move. It's the start of a series. More on that in a minute. So what happened late last week? Well, JPMorgan, who's gone from no rate hike, now says to September and December. Citigroup, no rate hike to September. Goldman, no rate hike to September. Wells Fargo.

Indefinite hold. So Wells Fargo is still the big bank, one of the six big banks that says, no rate hike coming. I strongly suspect that will change by Monday, but we shall see. But here's the worst part.