The Autonomous Era Is Here: What Supply Chain Leaders Need to Do Next

**Alexis Waringa** (0:00)
Welcome to Gartner ThinkCast. I'm Alexis Waringa. Today, we're featuring a preview of the opening keynote from the 2026 Gartner Supply Chain Symposium Expo as delivered in Orlando, Florida.
In this keynote, Gartner Senior Director Analyst, Lindsay Azim, explores what we call the Autonomous Business Era and why supply chain leaders are navigating a pivotal moment of change. You'll hear why success isn't about implementing AI first, fastest, or even best. It's about preparing your supply chain to compete in a world where people, agents, and machines work together to drive new levels of agility, resilience, and value. Now, here's Lindsay Azim.

**Lindsay Azim** (0:38)
I cannot tell you how genuinely excited I am to be up here, to be in Orlando, to be in front of all of you today. I see a room full of supply chain leaders that have one thing in common. You're asked to show up day in and day out to meet the moment. And let's be honest, showing up in 2026 is not easy. We're seeing high tensions in the Middle East. We're seeing rising oil prices, and we're seeing a critical logistics artery under threat. In spite of that, we still keep a constant flow of materials and products moving. Under deadlines and under expectations that only seem to grow, we keep showing up. And while we're managing the demands that are right in front of us, something much bigger is unfolding. This isn't just a change you see in your roadmap. We are actually turning onto an entirely different road with technologies and capabilities that we've never had before. And the headlines won't let us forget it. AI is transforming the future of business. AI helps doctors diagnose and treat diseases. AI changes how Hollywood scripts and teachers grade. We certainly hear a lot about AI. But let's talk about the realities we see on the ground. First, the investments. Organizations are throwing big budgets at AI. Supply chain alone spent an average of $24 million on AI in 2025 More than a third of AI investments went over budget. And most organizations don't expect to see results for at least a year after deployment. Of course, that doesn't let us off the hook. We're still under pressure to take costs out. And it can all feel pretty overwhelming. But do you know what else it feels like? It feels familiar. This is just what it feels like at the beginning of a new business era. Emerging technology is powerful enough to reshape how business gets done, but we haven't yet redesigned how our business operates. Market bubbles form, productivity gaps emerge, and institutional lag sets in. And we've all seen these patterns before. In the early 2000s, we were also navigating global shocks and scenario planning on the implications of China's entry into the World Trade Organization and watching the dot-com bubble burst. How many of you debated on whether Amazon was ever going to turn a profit? Do you remember when it was a bookstore?
Despite all that chaos, a new era still emerged. It was called the e-commerce era. New sales channels opened, and every organization had to rethink their playbook. What we know today is we adapted. We moved forward. We emerged on the other side stronger than we were before. The way we do business today would have terrified us. In 2003, but here we are. Coffee in one hand, little hand-held computer in the other, and we're navigating it all with confidence. Mark Twain said, history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. And we are definitely rhyming. This time, AI is the catalyst. Supply chain leaders say, it changes in ways of working because of AI is the most influential driver redefining our strategies over the next two years. And the narrative should sound familiar. An AI bubble, the gaps between AI and productivity, and how far our institutions are lagging behind in governing this new technology.
Here's the thing.
The future isn't coming, it's already here. But we still have operations to run, deadlines to meet, and products to get to customers. And that's what makes this moment so challenging. We're juggling two timelines at once, delivering today while knowing we need to prepare for what's next. Gartner calls this next era the autonomous business era. This is that reset moment. Eight in ten executives expect autonomous business to be the dominant form of business by 2030 Now, I want to get on the same page about what autonomous business is. Autonomous business goes beyond traditional automation. It's a strategy that uses self-improving technologies, so AI agents, virtual assistants, and robots to make decisions and take action. New types of value are created as both people and machines gain greater autonomy. Now, this isn't just a change in how we do things. It's a change in who does what. And the who is becoming a mix of people and machines, working both independently and together. Now, for all of us in this room who make, move, and sell physical products, this is a very big deal. It's a major shift in how we run and resource our supply chains. For marketing and finance, autonomy often means automating digital workflows, which of course comes with its own challenges. But in supply chain, our reality is different. Our work is rooted in the physical movement of raw materials, boxes, and pallets across complex networks.