The AI Supercycle with Jordi Visser | Raoul Pal the Journey Man

**Jordi Visser** (0:00)
Building a business in AI has tremendous margins, tremendous. It allows you to grow rapidly.

**Raoul Pal** (0:07)
We've never seen this before, right? So Reed's law, which is Metcalf's Law Squared, has never existed in biology, not even viruses. It doesn't exist, and now we're seeing it, and it's fucking everywhere, which is why it's so hard to understand.

**Jordi Visser** (0:20)
The new world is, if we can't actually make all the chips we need, and we can't actually get the power we need, you end up with a little bit of demand by mismatch.

**Raoul Pal** (0:29)
The bottlenecks themselves may slow the earnings of these companies, not because the demand is not there, because the demand is too big. That's bananas, but that's what we might get to. As you know by now, I'm Raoul Pal, and welcome to my show, The Journey Man, where we travel to that nexus of understanding between macro, crypto, and the exponential age of technology. I've been bleating on for a few years now how this is all coming together. Macro, crypto, and technology, they're all the same thing and everything is changing, and it's changing extremely fast. There's not many people who understand across all of these disciplines.
You can find experts in various fields, but very few people who understand at broad in macro terms what this all means. But my regular guest, good friend of mine, Jordi Visser, well, he's the person I go to to think things through, and he does the same with me. So it's not really an interview ever. It's just us thinking through what the hell is going on, what does it mean, how to measure it, how to take opportunity of it. So I think you're going to love it. Here's a conversation with good friend Jordi Visser.
Join me, Raoul Pal, as I go on a journey of discovery through the macro, crypto and exponential age landscapes. In The Journeyman, I talk to the smartest people in the world so we can all become smarter together.

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**Raoul Pal** (2:53)
Jordi Visser, how the devil are you?

**Jordi Visser** (2:55)
How are you doing, my friend?

**Raoul Pal** (2:57)
I'm good. I'm good. So lots to talk about, I'm sure. I've no idea as ever what we're going to talk about, but what's on your mind?

**Jordi Visser** (3:05)
Well, I'm going to start in a good place for you. I actually listened to you and Julian recently, and something you guys talked about throughout, really at the very end. If you remember, when we sat down in my offices and I talked about no more recessions, and that hit you, the way you guys phrased the transition away from labor versus capital into compute versus energy, you and I have talked about this in some way. We're both AI believers, but it really hit me hard in the same way the recession, because it fits in with that whole conversation. Meaning business cycles of the past to grow your business, you needed location, you needed to borrow money, you needed to hire people to grow it every year when we were at investment banks. Okay, this division is doing well, let's give them more people, let's go open an office in Brazil, let's go do this.
In compute versus energy, it's a very, very different thing. And I spent the time and I've been writing about that the AI cycle is no longer about capital versus labor, but not phrasing the way you guys did, and not specifically saying compute versus energy, but actually saying bottlenecks and shortages, which are the same thing as when supply and demand get out of whack on the other side. But it really hit me hard that we're starting to see that phase and that people should get used to that the new world is, if we can't actually make all the chips we need and we can't actually get the power we need in a delayed fashion, we end up with a little bit of demand versus supply mismatch. So that's what I've been thinking a lot in writing about.