The AI Job Shock Is Coming

Raoul Pal (0:00)

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Emad Mostaque (0:34)

I mean, faster is faster than real time. I know. What the heck, right? Like we just came back from the Moonshots Conference where we had the Future Vision XPRIZE 2.6 million for the top AI generated movie with an abundant future. I can't tell the difference anymore. Like, you know, if anyone can tell the difference in AI stuff, it should be me. I just can't tell the difference. Like, I'm like, this is Hollywood level, which means it understands everything.

How crazy is that?

Raoul Pal (0:59)

Join me, Raoul Pal, as I go on a journey of discovery through the macro, crypto and exponential age landscapes. In The Journey Man, I talk to the smartest people in the world so we can all become smarter together.

Emad, good to see you, my friend.

Emad Mostaque (1:20)

Always a pleasure, sir.

Raoul Pal (1:22)

So I've just, you know, we're filming this, it's the 28th of September, and it's actually going out towards the end of October because we're both wildly traveling. So in the world that we live in, one month is a very long time.

Emad Mostaque (1:35)

It is indeed, particularly at this point, when you're at that point of the exponential takeoff, gosh, only knows, right?

Raoul Pal (1:41)

I know. I'm just, I'm blown away. I'm using Opus five and a half. I don't know if you've used it yet.

Emad Mostaque (1:48)

I don't know if you've used it extensively.

Raoul Pal (1:49)

It's absurd. I mean, it just, I mean, I was building motion graphic videos, building apps, doing stuff, editing, writing, all of this stuff, and used like 20 percent of my credits. And I did three entire full days of 12 hour days.

It's absurd. And it's so smart.

Emad Mostaque (2:08)

Yeah. Compared to Fable, that ate all your credits in two seconds. And it was a bit annoying. And Opus five, which genuinely was a bit psychopathic.

Raoul Pal (2:16)

I couldn't use it. I just refused.

Emad Mostaque (2:19)

It was unpleasant, wasn't it? Like, oh, it just didn't do anything either.

I refused. I refused to think about things. No, I mean, I think 5.5 is the first actually competent intelligence that has taste.

And that's the economically impactful one. Everyone talks about frontier and solving Navier-Stokes and all that. That doesn't matter on day to day life. What matters is actually competent intelligence that does a job. And what matters is intelligence that has a modicum of taste. Like AI Slop has kind of turned to Claude Slop now, and our timelines are filling with people just creating entire, as you said, music videos, like versions of Zelda and anything they can imagine. It's like, wait, it works now? You know? And as you said, the other fight of it is you've gone from, well, I burned through my Claude credits and I'm going to have to buy another thousand bucks to, why isn't the number going down anymore? It's so much more efficient than came before.

Raoul Pal (3:13)

Yeah, I agree. Taste is a big thing, right? Because what taste really means is we like to work with it and it's kind of magical when it does stuff. And it's done in a way that feels more natural.

Emad Mostaque (3:26)

Yeah, I think it's cross-contextual resonance, right? Like you ultimately have this thing where you hire a barely competent graduate, right? And then the graduate moves towards competence. And then they move to understanding you before you even go somewhere. And so we've actually moved through the competence a few months ago, start of the year. That's what caused OpenClaw to kick off, right? And it's what drives Muse and Instinct and these personal assistants that are now taking up like instinct, as we said, this just announced a billion at 10 billion valuation, you know, for its latest funding round. Muse has got 2.8 million users on its first day, which is like a record.

And, but then Fable 5.5 is, sorry, Opus 5.5 is the next level above that, which is again, the competent workmate that is almost slightly psychic.